The advent of weight-loss drugs, primarily semaglutide, proved to be an immense boon for biotech giants — primarily Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly.
However, since the start of 2025, the price action of the two has diverged quite sharply. Whereas Eli Lilly stock (NYSE: LLY) is currently up 6.97% on a year-to-date (YTD) basis, Novo Nordisk stock (NYSE: NVO) has lost 18.87% in value in the same timeframe.
Most of the divergence can be attributed to the fact that Eli Lilly maintains a more robust pipeline and that its newest products have demonstrated superior results in trials. However, we’re talking about an incredibly large total addressable market (TAM) here, so it’s an open question as to whether this fact alone is enough to justify the discrepancy.
Moreover, there’s a strong case to be made for NVO stock as the better play — let’s examine the key reasons as to why it could be the better choice.
Novo Nordisk’s valuation is trading at a much more attractive valuation
While valuations tend to be ignored in high-flying bull markets, recent volatility, as well as mounting fears of a trade war and/or a recession, could very well lead investors to start allocating their dollars in a more efficient manner.
At present, LLY stock is trading at a forward price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 36.26, roughly in line with the average of the wider stock market. In contrast, Novo Nordisk stock is trading at a much more modest forward PE of 17.23.
This doesn’t just position NVO as the better value play — remember, these are prices relative to earnings that we’re discussing. An even greater gap can be seen when comparing the trailing PE of LLY and NVO, which stand at 69.29 and 21.45, respectively.
In addition, the Danish biotech giant is trading at its lowest price-to-sales ratio since March of 2020, as noted by X user Bourbon Capital in a March 27 post.
So, there’s a reasonable case to be made for the thesis that NVO shares will rebound — but what does Wall Street say?
Wall Street remains bullish on the Danish biotech giant
On March 28, Bank of America analysts shared an updated outlook on Novo Nordisk stock. The bank’s equity researchers are concerned that the company could miss first-quarter sales expectations, which they expect will result in a 2% cut to full-year sales and guidance, leading to a sales growth range of 14% and 22% for the entire year.
Despite this rather negative development, BofA believes that, even at the reduced levels, guidance is good enough to position NVO as a valid alternative to Eli Lilly. While the price target was slashed from $131 from $155, this updated price forecast still implies a hefty 87/70% upside.
Speaking of Wall Street, on the whole, analysts remain cautiously bullish on the biotech giant. At present, 10 researchers track Novo Nordisk stock and issue ratings for it — five deem it a ‘Buy’, while 5 deem it a ‘Hold’. However, the average price target sits at $110.36, a figure that would equate to a 58.13% rally compared to current prices.
In fact, NVO is one of the stocks with the biggest projected upside according to Wall Street analysts.
For the sake of comparison, as of the time of writing, the average 12-month price forecast for Eli Lilly stock implied a promising, yet much more modest upside of 25.04%.
Featured image via Shutterstock
