Oracle’s (NYSE: ORCL) commitments to the artificial intelligence (AI) firm OpenAI have been weighing on the company so heavily that even the June double earnings beat or $7 billion deal with the Pentagon could not have turned the equity into a profitable investment.
Specifically, ORCL shares recently hit a new 52-week low at $114.50 and, despite the subsequent recovery to $119.96 at the latest closing bell, remain 52.01% in the red in the 12-month chart.
Thus, investors who had hoped that the AI buildout – in which Oracle is a pivotal player thanks to its Stargate partnership with OpenAI – would begin yielding profits by mid-2026 likely found themselves deep underwater.
Indeed, ORCL was changing hands at $249.98 on Tuesday, July 29, 2025, and closed on Tuesday, July 28, 2026, at $119.96. Given the price change, a $1,000 investment in Oracle stock made a year ago would have fallen by $520.10 and led to a position worth $479.90.
Why Oracle stock crashed 50% in a year
So far, two concerns have been dominating investor attitudes toward the technology giant.
On the one hand, OpenAI is due to pay a vast amount of money to Oracle on account of the 5-year $300 billion deal – so vast that, between the AI firm’s other commitments and leaked financials, it is doubtful if it will have sufficient funds.
On the other hand, as risky – though also potentially rewarding – the initial agreement is, Larry Ellison’s firm has put itself under increasing duress to fund the project, with the latest example coming in the form of a $40 billion raise in the form of debt and equity offers revealed in the June earnings.
Together, as some of the more cynical observers, including the waxing AI critic Ed Zitron, have pointed out, the specifics of the deal mean that Oracle and its founder’s personal fortune are at risk of collapse should the AI ‘boom’ fail to deliver the hoped-for results.
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