Ethereum Foundation researcher Justin Drake warns that Bitcoin (BTC) could face a new cryptographic threat from artificial intelligence (AI) years before quantum computers become powerful enough to break today’s encryption.
Writing on X on October 7, Drake argued that advanced AI mathematical research could potentially recover private keys from exposed public keys within months rather than years. He further described a hypothetical “break” as the ability to recover a private key in roughly one week.
“IMO it is now reasonable to brace for the possibility that ECDSA breaks before qday, in the worst case in months not years. By “break” I mean fast private key recovery (e.g. in one week) on available hardware (e.g. a large GPU cluster),” the researcher wrote.
However, the warning does not mean Bitcoin or Ethereum (ETH) cryptography is about to be broken soon. Rather, Drake appears to be urging the crypto industry to prepare for a potential AI-assisted attack on elliptic-curve cryptography before the arrival of “Q-Day,” i.e., the point at which powerful quantum computers could pose a serious threat to cryptographic systems.
Satoshi’s Bitcoin holdings could be in danger, Justin Drake warns
One of the biggest potential targets is Bitcoin held at addresses whose public keys have already been exposed through previous transactions, which can reveal a public key when coins are spent.
For instance, Drake highlighted Bitcoin creator Satoshi Nakamoto’s holdings as a particularly significant example. He estimates that roughly 20,000 addresses associated with Satoshi hold 50 BTC each, representing approximately 1 million BTC in total, worth $83 billion at press time.
Drake’s proposed response, which he has described as “bunker mode,” involves gradually moving funds to fresh addresses whose public keys have never been exposed.
For Bitcoin, the basic strategy is to keep funds in addresses that have only received coins. Once funds are spent from an address, the remaining balance can be moved to a new address.
“My personal recommendation is to set in motion a controlled mass migration of assets to fresh addresses, i.e. addresses whose pubkeys remain hidden behind a hash. Holders, starting with large and sophisticated ones, should consider moving the bulk of their funds to addresses that have never signed a transaction. And when they do sign one, they should also move remaining funds to a new address (possibly generated from the same seed phrase),” he added.
AI progress raises new cryptographic concerns for Bitcoin
Drake further pointed to the pace of recent AI research as part of his concern. He cited 722 mathematical results published by OpenAI, arguing that the rapid progress in automated mathematical reasoning could eventually have implications for cryptography.
He also raised concerns about the limited visibility into some cryptanalytic research. That is, Drake said he had witnessed what he described as U.S. government intervention in academic quantum-cryptanalysis results.
“I’ve witnessed first-hand the US government censoring academic quantum cryptanalysis results. Backroom interventionism is my base case,” Drake wrote.
Of course, such claims do not mean that an undisclosed cryptographic breakthrough currently exists. Rather, they illustrate Drake’s argument that the industry should be ready to face risks sooner than expected.
In other words, the warning was issued to major crypto companies and custodians, such as Binance, to strengthen their cold-storage practices and prepare for controlled address migration.
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