Amazon’s (NASDAQ: AMZN) push into custom AI hardware is reshaping expectations for its valuation, with new analysis suggesting the company could see notable stock gains as its in-house chips challenge Nvidia’s (NASDAQ: NVDA)lead.
With the launch of Trainium3, AWS’s most advanced AI processor, forecasts point to a stronger re-rating for Amazon through 2026, as the chip becomes a key driver of AWS’s strategy to control more of the AI-infrastructure stack.
The launch also spurred short-term growth in Amazon’s stock. At the close of the last session, AMZN traded at $234, up just under 1% for the day. Year-to-date, the stock has gained roughly 7%.
Trainium3 represents Amazon’s strongest effort yet to reduce reliance on Nvidia, delivering 4.4 times the performance of its predecessor and cutting large-model training costs by nearly half. Its speed, efficiency, and lower operating costs make Amazon a credible alternative for enterprises that have long depended on Nvidia hardware.
While Nvidia remains the industry leader, integrating Trainium3 directly into AWS gives Amazon a cost and scalability advantage. Broad adoption could allow the company to capture a meaningful share of the AI-infrastructure market.
Amazon stock price prediction
Based on these dynamics, Finbold turned to OpenAI’s ChatGPT to forecast how the stock might trade in 2026. The base-case scenario sees AMZN rising to the $300–$330 range over the next 12 to 24 months as Trainium3 gains traction and AWS benefits from renewed acceleration in cloud and AI demand.
Stronger adoption could push the stock into the $350–$400 range as Amazon demonstrates it can convert custom silicon into revenue, margin expansion, and higher cloud utilization.
In a more aggressive scenario ChatGPT noted that if Trainium3 becomes a widely adopted standard for large-scale model training and AWS is revalued as a pure AI-infrastructure leader rather than a diversified tech conglomerate, AMZN could climb toward $450–$500.
The model also noted that risks remain, including the challenge of convincing customers to shift from Nvidia’s established ecosystem, the heavy capital requirements of AI infrastructure, and potential delays in deployment.
Even so, Trainium3 marks Amazon’s clearest signal that it intends to compete at the top tier of AI hardware rather than rely solely on partners.
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