Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) is scheduled to report its fiscal fourth-quarter 2025 earnings on February 25, 2026, with investors closely watching whether the company can sustain its AI-driven growth momentum after a volatile start to the year.
Ahead of the report, Wall Street consensus estimates place Nvidia’s Q4 revenue at approximately $38.3 billion, modestly above the company’s prior guidance of around $37.5 billion.
Analysts expect adjusted earnings per share in the range of $0.84 to $0.85, reflecting continued year-over-year growth, primarily driven by data center and artificial intelligence demand.
Notably, the stock has begun 2026 with notable volatility while attempting to claim the $200 resistance zone. By press time, NVDA shares were valued at $185, ending the last session up almost 0.5%. Over the past year, the equity has rallied more than 40%.
Based on these earnings expectations, current market positioning, and Nvidia’s historical post-earnings behavior, AI modeling by ChatGPT suggests a range of potential price outcomes following the Q4 earnings release.
NVDA share price prediction
In the base-case scenario, where the semiconductor giant meets or slightly exceeds revenue expectations and delivers steady forward guidance, ChatGPT projects the stock could trade between $215 and $225 in the weeks following the earnings report. This scenario assumes a positive but measured market reaction, driven by renewed confidence in earnings durability rather than a speculative re-rating.
A more bullish outcome is possible if Nvidia delivers a clear earnings beat alongside stronger-than-expected guidance on AI infrastructure demand and margins. Under this scenario, ChatGPT estimates Nvidia shares could advance into the $235 to $245 range as investors reprice growth expectations for 2026.
On the downside, if Nvidia meets earnings expectations but issues cautious guidance on customer spending, margins, or regulatory risks, the stock could struggle to sustain upside momentum. In this case, ChatGPT projects a post-earnings trading range between $175 and $185, reflecting consolidation rather than a breakdown in the longer-term thesis.
In a less likely bearish scenario, where earnings or guidance materially disappoint, Nvidia shares could retrace toward the $155 to $165 range as short-term sentiment deteriorates. However, such an outcome would likely require clear evidence of slowing AI demand or structural pressure on profitability.
Overall, ChatGPT’s AI-based outlook suggests that Nvidia’s post-earnings price action will be driven more by forward guidance than by headline earnings alone.
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