While Palantir (NASDAQ: PLTR) stock has had an impressive run in 2025, an artificial intelligence (AI) model suggests the rally may continue through year-end. By press time, the American software giant was trading at $181, marking a year-to-date gain of about 141%.
For insight into how the stock could perform by the end of 2025, Finbold sought analysis from OpenAI’s ChatGPT. The model indicated an expected year-end price of roughly $225 per share, derived from a probability-weighted blend of bullish, base, and bearish scenarios.
The base-case outlook, viewed as the most likely, places Palantir between $205 and $235. This scenario assumes the company continues to benefit from steady government and commercial AI contract momentum, revenue growth in the 40% to 60% range, and ongoing margin improvement.
ChatGPT noted that while valuations may ease slightly as AI enthusiasm moderates, the stock is still projected to maintain a premium relative to peers. This forecast aligns with the upper targets currently offered by optimistic analysts.
PLTR stock bullish case
A more bullish outcome envisions Palantir rising to between $260 and $310. This scenario would require faster-than-expected enterprise adoption of AI platforms, multiple major contract wins, and meaningful contributions from the company’s collaboration with Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA).
Supportive macroeconomic conditions and strong investor appetite for high-growth AI names would further reinforce this trajectory, positioning Palantir as a key infrastructure layer for government and enterprise AI.
The bearish case places the stock in the $140 to $170 range, reflecting the risk of a sharp valuation reset, slower AI spending in 2026 budgets, weaker commercial contract flow, or a broader market rotation away from high-multiple technology stocks. Even so, Palantir would remain fundamentally healthy, though repriced to reflect a more cautious environment.
Across all outcomes, ChatGPT’s weighted analysis points to an expected price of about $225 per share by December 31, 2025, suggesting additional upside from current levels. The model added that while volatility is likely, demand for AI capabilities and government-sector software should continue to provide a solid foundation for the stock.
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