OpenAI’s ChatGPT has projected that SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) stock could end Q4 2026 at approximately $210, near its post-IPO record high of $225.
Such a target implies a potential upside of 23% from its October 5 closing price of $171.
Based on current market conditions, ChatGPT expects SpaceX stock to trade between $190 and $220 by December 31, 2026, with a weighted target of about $210.
On Monday, SpaceX extended its rally after Elon Musk confirmed discussions with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) regarding Terafab, a semiconductor venture intended to supply advanced chips to Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI.
The model views this as the most likely scenario as investors assign higher valuations to SpaceX’s artificial intelligence, Starlink, and launch businesses.
According to ChatGPT, the TSMC development has emerged as one of the most important recent catalysts for SpaceX stock.
In a bullish scenario, SpaceX stock could climb to between $250 and $300 if the company announces a formal TSMC partnership, delivers strong quarterly earnings, shows further Starship progress, and secures additional AI-related contracts.
On the downside, ChatGPT estimates SPCX stock could retreat to between $135 and $155 if TSMC discussions fail to result in a meaningful agreement, Starship faces further setbacks, or investors become increasingly concerned about valuation and capital spending.
SpaceX stock fundamentals
At the same time, SpaceX’s latest results continue to support its growth story. For instance, in the second quarter, revenue rose 91.9% year-over-year to $7.81 billion, while adjusted EBITDA increased to $3.54 billion and net losses narrowed significantly.
Starlink subscribers also doubled to 12 million, with enterprise and government revenue exceeding $1.8 billion, alongside more than $6 billion in Starshield contracts.
Meanwhile, SpaceX’s AI segment generated $2.56 billion in revenue, up 247% from a year earlier, reinforcing the view that investors increasingly see the company as both a space and AI infrastructure player.
Despite the bullish outlook, ChatGPT highlighted several risks that could pressure SpaceX stock before year-end.
The company continues investing heavily in AI infrastructure, with quarterly capital expenditures exceeding $18 billion, leaving investors focused on whether future revenue growth can justify that spending.
Starship also remains a key variable, as recent test flights have shown progress but also encountered technical issues, including engine-related problems.
In addition, SpaceX’s core launch business remains unprofitable despite revenue growth, while some investors continue to question whether the company’s roughly $2 trillion valuation adequately reflects operational risks.
Featured image via Shutterstock
