As January 1, 2026 begins, XRP enters the new year under clear pressure, with price action reflecting a mix of predictable supply mechanics, fading technical momentum, and cautious risk sentiment across the crypto market.

While downside risks remain visible, artificial intelligence models are beginning to suggest that the token’s selling pressure may start to stabilize later in the month.

At present, XRP is trading near $1.84, extending a steady decline that has been in place since early September. That broader trend provides important context for the latest market signals, as the token has struggled to attract sustained demand following its failure to hold above the $2.80 region late last year.

XRP price struggles to reclaim key technical levels

XRP remains below its 30-day simple moving average at $1.96, as well as under a key Fibonacci support zone near $1.94. Repeated attempts to reclaim the $1.94–$2.05 range have failed, reinforcing the view that sellers remain in control in the short term.

Momentum data supports that assessment. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around 38.6, signaling weakness without yet reaching oversold territory. At the same time, the MACD histogram has turned marginally positive, hinting at slowing downside momentum. However, because the MACD line itself remains below the signal line, the setup points more toward consolidation than a confirmed reversal.

January escrow release adds pressure at a sensitive moment

Compounding that technical fragility is a familiar supply event. On January 1, 1 billion XRP was released from escrow, in line with the XRP Ledger’s long-standing monthly schedule. While the release itself is fully anticipated by the market, its timing can still influence short-term behavior when sentiment is already fragile.

Historically, 60% to 80% of released XRP is typically re-escrowed, meaning the net increase in circulating supply is far smaller than headline figures suggest. Even so, on-chain data shows that XRP balances on exchanges rose 3.2% over the past 30 days, indicating that some holders positioned for liquidity ahead of the event. In practice, this often amplifies short-term volatility even when the supply mechanics are well understood.

AI models point to tentative stabilization by month-end

With both technical weakness and supply dynamics in play, Finbold examined its AI-driven price prediction tool to assess where XRP could be headed next. The model aggregates forecasts from ChatGPT, Gemini 2.5 Flash, and Claude Sonnet 4, providing a range of probabilistic outcomes rather than a single directional call.

The average AI-predicted price for XRP by the end of January stands at $1.92, implying a 4.17% upside from current levels. Claude Sonnet 4 offered the most optimistic scenario, projecting a potential 16.85% advance, while Gemini 2.5 Flash delivered the most conservative outlook, allowing for a 4.89% downside.

Longer-term XRPL upgrades contrast with near-term price weakness

While short-term price action remains under pressure, the longer-term narrative around the XRP Ledger (XRPL) continues to evolve. In Q1 2026, the network is expected to launch a native lending protocol, enabling fixed-rate institutional loans through Single-Asset Vaults. Separately, confidential transaction functionality using zero-knowledge proofs, developed by RippleX, is aimed at compliance-focused institutional use cases.

These upgrades position the XRPL to compete for a share of the tokenized real-world asset market, which analysts estimate could exceed $16 trillion by 2030. However, as history has shown, structural progress does not always translate into immediate price support during periods of weak sentiment.

Taken together, XRP’s early-2026 weakness reflects a convergence of predictable supply events, unresolved technical damage, and cautious positioning as the market enters the new year. While AI models suggest scope for a rebound toward the $1.90–$1.95 range, a sustained recovery will likely depend on XRP reclaiming key resistance and seeing spot demand return after early-January portfolio rebalancing runs its course.

For now, January appears more likely to be defined by volatility and consolidation than by a decisive trend shift.