American semiconductor giant Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) is gearing up to announce its third-quarter earnings on November 19, with Wall Street expecting a bullish report.
Indeed, the earnings will be crucial in determining the next course for the AI-focused market, as Nvidia has shaped the sector’s outlook for several years. Attention will now shift to whether the results can push the stock past the $200 mark toward its $250 record high.
For the quarter, Nvidia management expects revenue of $54 billion, a 54% increase from the same period last year. Gross margins are projected at 73.3% under GAAP and 73.5% on a non-GAAP basis, while operating expenses are estimated at $5.9 billion GAAP and $4.2 billion non-GAAP.
Wall Street analysts are watching Nvidia’s outlook, forecasting adjusted EPS of $1.25, up from $0.81 in the prior year, and revenue of $54.77 billion, representing a 56% year-over-year gain.
At the close of the last trading session, NVDA shares were valued at $188, having rallied 36% year-to-date.
Will Nvidia hit $250?
To gauge whether the stock could hit the $250 record high post-earnings, Finbold turned to OpenAI’s ChatGPT. According to the model, the chances of reaching this target are pegged at 30%, assuming a near-perfect earnings beat and highly positive guidance.
The AI-driven odds reflect bullish sentiment but also acknowledge the risks. While Nvidia has historically seen 20% to 30% post-earnings surges after exceptional beats, a miss on guidance or supply chain issues could limit gains. ChatGPT also flagged geopolitical risks, particularly tensions in China, which could affect Nvidia’s international business.
In the base case, the model expects a more modest rally, with Nvidia possibly trading between $200 and $230 after earnings. There’s also a 20% chance that the stock either flatlines or dips, especially if results fall short of expectations.
Ultimately, ChatGPT noted that hitting $250 post-earnings is possible but remains a high-risk scenario, requiring Nvidia to deliver a perfect quarter with bullish forward guidance.
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