An artificial intelligence (AI) model is projecting that Palantir (NASDAQ: PLTR) stock could reach a new all-time high of $250 following the company’s strong Q3 earnings report.
PLTR stock entered its Q3 2025 earnings with solid momentum, trading above $200 per share despite ongoing questions about its valuation.
However, the stock erased much of its pre-earnings gains despite the company beating analysts’ estimates.
At the close of Monday’s session, Palantir shares finished at $207.18, up over 3% and 175% year-to-date. In pre-market trading on Tuesday, the stock slipped more than 6% to around $193.
Palantir Q3 earnings
For the quarter, the software company posted results that exceeded Wall Street expectations and issued upbeat guidance for the final quarter, driven by strong demand for its artificial intelligence platforms.
Adjusted earnings came in at $0.21 per share, above the $0.17 expected, while revenue reached $1.18 billion, surpassing the $1.09 billion forecast. Palantir expects about $1.33 billion in revenue for the current quarter, well ahead of analysts’ estimates.
Government contracts continued to drive Palantir’s growth, with U.S. government revenue jumping 52% year over year to $486 million. Total revenue climbed 63% from a year earlier to more than $1 billion for the second consecutive quarter.
However, analysts raised concerns about Palantir’s heavy reliance on government clients, particularly as the ongoing U.S. government shutdown threatens key contracts. The company has also faced criticism over how its surveillance tools are used by agencies such as Immigration and Customs Enforcement.
Net income more than tripled to $475.6 million, up from $143.5 million a year earlier. Palantir now expects full-year sales of around $4.4 billion and free cash flow between $1.9 billion and $2.1 billion, both above prior forecasts.
Odds of PLTR stock hitting $250
Regarding the chances of PLTR stock hitting $250 post-earnings, Finbold turned to OpenAI’s ChatGPT, which outlined several potential scenarios.
In a bullish scenario, a strong earnings beat paired with favorable guidance and continued enthusiasm around Palantir’s AI initiatives could drive the stock to between $240 and $260, giving roughly a 15% to 20% chance of hitting $250 in the near term.
In a base-case scenario, where the company meets guidance or posts a modest beat, the stock is more likely to trade in the $190 to $210 range, reflecting a moderate market reaction.
Conversely, if Palantir misses guidance or falls short of expectations, the stock could retreat to $170 and $195, highlighting the risks associated with its high valuation and reliance on government contracts.
Finally, a rare “wild card” scenario, such as securing a major new AI deal or strategic contract, could push the stock even higher, though such outcomes are unlikely within a single earnings event.
While the probability of a $250 spike is non-negligible, the stock’s trajectory will ultimately depend on the company’s ability to deliver on revenue, guidance, and AI-driven growth initiatives, as well as broader market sentiment in the weeks following the earnings announcement.
Featured image via Shutterstock
