Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) is set to report its quarterly earnings on October 22, 2025, following a turbulent year marked by declining sales.
After a record quarter that saw deliveries reach 497,000 vehicles, Tesla’s stock has surged 93% over the past month to $439.31, prompting questions about how high it could climb post-earnings.
Consensus estimates project EPS of $0.53 on $26 billion in revenue, reflecting a strong Q3 rebound after a subdued first half.
Regarding the stock’s reaction, Finbold consulted OpenAI’s ChatGPT model on whether the equity could reach the $500 mark.
TSLA stock price post-earning prediction
Based on Tesla’s current performance and market dynamics, ChatGPT estimates the odds of the stock hitting $500 in the short term at roughly 35%. The model suggested a most likely near-term post-earnings range of $425 to $480, balancing optimism from strong Q3 results with concerns over future demand.
Looking further ahead, the AI model indicated a medium-term range of $460 to $510 if Tesla delivers stronger-than-expected guidance and maintains demand momentum.
Conversely, a more cautious scenario could see the stock retracing to $400 and $430, underscoring the tightrope Tesla must walk in a maturing global EV market.
Tesla stock fundamentals
Notably, Tesla’s recent gains have been fueled by several factors, including full-capacity factory operations, gross margins expected to recover to around 18%, and net income projected near $1.9 billion.
Investor sentiment has also been boosted by CEO Elon Musk stepping back from the political spotlight, allowing focus to return to operational execution and the product roadmap.
However, structural challenges persist. The expiration of the $7,500 US federal EV tax credit may soften demand, while growing competition from low-cost Chinese manufacturers like BYD and NIO, as well as European legacy automakers, could pressure margins.
Rising input costs and continued discounting to defend market share further temper expectations for an immediate post-earnings spike to $500.
Featured image via Shutterstock
