Artificial intelligence model ChatGPT has outlined a bullish case scenario for Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) shares in 2026.
The model suggests Tesla could reach highs above $600 if investor sentiment around autonomy, AI, and energy storage strengthens meaningfully during the year.
The projection is based on Tesla’s current valuation, recent operating performance, and the market’s tendency to aggressively reprice the stock during periods of strong narrative momentum.
As of press time, Tesla shares were trading at $421, a level that already reflects the market’s view of the company as more than a traditional electric vehicle maker.
Tesla stock fundamentals
According to ChatGPT’s assessment, investors increasingly see Tesla as an AI, autonomy, and energy platform, meaning much of the optimism is already priced in.
Further upside in 2026 would likely require renewed confidence in Tesla’s long-term transformation rather than steady execution alone.
ChatGPT noted that Tesla historically reaches peak valuations when a compelling growth narrative takes hold. In 2026, that narrative would depend on tangible progress in autonomy, continued energy growth, and favorable market sentiment.
Full robotaxi rollout is not required, but credible evidence of scalable, recurring Full Self-Driving revenue would be a key catalyst. Stronger energy margins could also lead investors to value Tesla as distinct automotive and energy businesses rather than a single cyclical carmaker.
The analysis pointed to mixed fundamentals, such as vehicle deliveries fell about 8% in 2025 to roughly 1.64 million units, with fourth-quarter deliveries down around 15% year over year.
Revenue declined to about $94.8 billion, while net income fell to roughly $3.8 billion, highlighting slower growth in Tesla’s core automotive business.
At the same time, Robotaxi initiatives are strategically important but financially modest in the near term. Pilot services are operating in Austin with plans to expand to the Bay Area, while Cybercab production is expected to begin in 2026.
Tesla has about 1.1 million Full Self-Driving subscribers, but projected 2026 robotaxi revenue of around $1 billion would represent only a small share of total sales. As a result, robotaxi progress is expected to influence valuation primarily through sentiment rather than immediate earnings.
TSLA stock record price
With this in mind, ChatGPT estimates Tesla’s stock could peak near $620 in 2026, representing a high-confidence upper bound driven by enthusiasm around AI, autonomy, and energy.
On the downside, shares could fall toward roughly $330 in a bearish scenario of continued delivery weakness and delayed robotaxi progress, or trade between about $380 and $500 in a base case where deliveries stabilize, and earnings meet expectations.
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