Market speculator and legendary investor Doug Casey, predicts a ‘massive economic depression’ for 2026, with only rare assets set to provide a bulwark against it.
Speaking during an interview with David Lin on January 5, Casey gave his two cents on markets, currencies, and living standards, arguing that the U.S. economy is approaching a breaking point after years of debt-fueled growth and dollar debasement.
Furthermore, the Chairman of Casey Research predicted that stock market gains are increasingly concentrated in a narrow group of large technology and artificial intelligence (AI) firms, drawing parallels to the dot-com bubble.
“AI will work, but the money being allocated to it today is premature and dangerously overpriced,” he noted.
As a result, Casey said he remains positioned defensively, favoring gold, silver, and select commodities as protection against what he sees as an increasingly unstable financial system.
Weak dollar drives gold and silver
Speaking amid a parabolic rally in precious metals, Casey, in his characteristic contrarian spirit, argued that “straight-line” price moves typically trigger his instinct to sell, although he made it clear that silver and gold should remain long-term holdings.
“That chart scares me a lot,” the investor warned, referring to silver’s recent surge. “But given how volatile the world’s monetary situation is, I’m very happy continuing to own my physical silver.”
Structural weakness in the U.S. dollar was cited as the primary force behind the surge in hedge assets. Namely, Casey argued that the federal government has “painted itself into a corner,” forcing the Federal Reserve to create trillions annually just to finance ongoing deficits.
Despite the situation, the conversation went, the public interest in precious metals equities remains muted. This, the author suggested, could be a sign that the move may not yet be near its ultimate peak. What’s more, he also added that price pullbacks would not change his strategy.
“If it drops back to $50, $40, or even $30 an ounce, I don’t care because it’s just an asset that I want to continue accumulating for the long term.”
The U.S. economy is ‘on its way to the slaughterhouse’
Casey also took aim at recent optimism surrounding U.S. economic growth, pushing back against claims that strong GDP figures translate into rising prosperity for average Americans. In this regard, his views are similar to those of Steve Hanke.
Specifically, while acknowledging that the U.S. economy is outperforming “sinking ships” such as Europe, he reasoned that this relative strength is misleading, as it merely paints the U.S. as “the best-looking horse on the way to the slaughterhouse.”
He further questioned the reliability of government data, saying he does not trust official statistics from U.S. agencies any more than those from chronically unstable economies. However, one of Casey’s most striking arguments was that Americans earning under $140,000 a year are effectively approaching poverty once real living costs are accounted for.
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