The S&P 500 has been down 2.64% since its local top on October 17 in what an analyst described as a short-term corrective wave that is about to finish.
In a TradingView post on November 3, chart analyst EduwaveTrading shared an idea related to the S&P 500. As described in his profile, the trader is an expert in the Elliott Wave theory, studying the market cycles.
According to EduwaveTrading, the US stock market has been in a short-term impulsive bull market since August 2024. Right now, the analyst believes the S&P 500 is going through a corrective wave 4. This downward correction came after an impulsive wave 3 that peaked at 5,890 on October 17.
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“I think next week we could see the finish of the complex correction down (wave 4) and the last leg up to finish wave 5. Trade idea: Wait for the complex correction down to finish and after a change in order flow to bullish and a correction down on a lower time frame you could trade (short term) longs.”
– EduwaveTrading
Economic context around the S&P 500 correction down
The next week will have two remarkably significant events, starting with the US presidential election on November 5, followed by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on November 7 to decide on interest rates.
Notably, experts believe a Kamala Harris victory would be bad for the stock market, including the S&P 500. Harris has gained some ground in election survey polls, although it is Donald Trump who leads the prediction market bets.
Leading economic indicators have grown investors’ concerns and recession fears, which contrast with an impulsive S&P 500. For example, gold’s rise to subsequent new all-time highs suggests smart money is moving to risk-off assets as a hedge.
Moreover, US Treasury Bonds have displayed an “absolutely terrifying” behavior, according to a certified analyst. Michael Burry shares a similar outlook on the economy, assuming a bearish stance for the stock market.
Nevertheless, the S&P 500 surged by more than 40% since Burry posted on X telling people to “sell.” Now, the market awaits to see if the stock market will bounce back to the last short-term impulsive wave after a correction down, as predicted by EduwaveTrading, and speculates on what will happen next.
Investors and traders should be careful and have a clear plan and solid strategy to navigate these uncertain times. Warren Buffett, for example, has been offloading most of his stock positions in anticipation of a capital gain tax.
