As the benchmark S&P 500 trades at record highs, an analyst has observed that a review of technical indicators from a historical perspective suggests the market is now entering an artificial intelligence-driven bubble.
Notably, the AI sector has been leading the stock market in recent years, with analysts warning about the sustainability of the rally and frequently drawing comparisons to the Dot-com bubble of 2000.
This momentum is highlighted by the index now targeting the 7,000 zone, after closing the last session at 6,656.
On the technical front, analysis by TradingShot in a TradingView post on September 23 indicated that the index is currently trading within a century-long Fibonacci Channel that has historically captured both bull and bear market cycles.
The outlook suggested that since the November 2022 bottom, equities have surged into a strong bull phase powered by artificial intelligence optimism.
At present, the benchmark index is pressing against the upper boundary of the 0.5–0.618 Fibonacci zone, a level last reached during the Dot-com run-up of the late 1990s.
Additionally, the market briefly entered the higher 0.618–0.786 “ghost zone” before collapsing in early 2001, sparking one of the sharpest corrections in modern history. If history repeats, a similar pattern could unfold between late 2025 and early 2026, with the S&P 500 testing this long-untouched resistance zone.
Next S&P 500 buying opportunity
Consequently, TradingShot suggested that a correction back toward the monthly 50-moving average (MA) would mark the next significant buying opportunity, potentially setting the stage for further gains as the AI-driven rally extends deeper into the decade.
The model projects that while the AI bubble could propel markets to record highs, its eventual bursting is most likely to occur between 2030 and 2032, echoing the structural patterns that defined the internet bubble.
However, some analysts argue that the chances of a collapse comparable to the Dot-com era are minimal. They point out that, unlike the internet boom, today’s AI rally is underpinned by tangible business applications, which could drive the index above 7,000 as early as 2026.
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