Despite financial results which appear at first to be promising, Apple stock (NASDAQ: AAPL) has struggled to meaningfully move to the upside since the start of the year.
On January 30, the tech company held its Q1 2025 earnings call. Both earnings per share (EPS) and revenue came in above consensus estimates. However, market participants and Wall Street researchers alike were more concerned with lagging iPhone sales in the crucial Chinese market — as the quarterly report confirmed earlier findings.
The outlook for Apple stock issued by analysts in the aftermath was mixed. On the whole, the average price target set by Wall Street researchers increased slightly.
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By press time, AAPL shares were changing hands at a price of $240.50, having marked a 3.96% decline since the start of the year.
Apple’s weakening sales, as well as the looming threat of a trade war, have proven to be enduring factors that limit upside potential. One Wall Street analyst recently revised his outlook on Apple stock — warning that these challenges could persist for the foreseeable future.
Muted demand and lagging sales a drag on Apple stock, analyst says
On March 3, UBS researcher David Vogt reiterated an earlier ‘Neutral’ rating on AAPL stock, and maintained a $236 price target. Vogt’s forecast implies a 1.66% downside from the current prices.
In a note shared with investors, the analyst cited data from Counterpoint, a technology market research firm. Per the findings, iPhone sales grew by 3% year-over-year (YoY) in January, some 200 basis points lower than the wider smartphone market’s growth. The key driver behind these figures was growth of 18% YoY in the Chinese market.
However, iPhone sell-through (the absolute number of units sold) declined by slightly more than 2% in China. In the United States, sell-through slowed by 2.5%, compared to the wider market’s 4.4% decline. In Europe, despite an average 1% uptick in units sold, iPhone sell-through decreased by 8% compared to January of last year.
India and other developing markets showed strong growth — but analysts are skeptical as to whether or not this can make up for muted demand from key markets. On the other hand, the tech giant is expecting that the iPhone 16e — a budget-friendly model priced at $599 that also provides Apple Intelligence features, will be a strong growth driver, particularly in developing markets.
With that being said, although the situations in question are still developing, Apple stock recovered rather rapidly after bearish catalysts such as China’s potential App Store probe — and a majority of analysts consider the risks posed by tariffs to be manageable.
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