Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) remains firmly in focus heading into 2026, with Baird reiterating its bullish stance on the electric vehicle maker and maintaining a $548 price target, citing a pipeline of upcoming catalysts that could reshape investor expectations over the next two years.
Tesla shares closed at $459.64 on December 29, down 3.27% on the session, before ticking higher in pre-market trading on December 30 to around $462, as investors digested the latest analyst commentary.
Baird says Tesla should be owned into 2026
In a research note released Tuesday, Baird analyst Ben Kallo said investors should continue to own Tesla into the new year, describing the stock as a core, long-term holding despite ongoing volatility. Baird reiterated its Outperform rating and kept its $548 price target, pointing to several company-specific and adjacent catalysts expected to unfold in 2026.
Kallo noted that Tesla shares are up 21% year to date and 7% over the past month, outperforming the S&P 500 on both measures despite what he described as a “slow start” to the year.
Robotaxi rollout seen as a key 2026 catalyst
Baird believes 2026 will be marked by a series of announcements related to Tesla’s robotaxi strategy, which it views as a central driver of the stock’s longer-term valuation. While the firm does not expect paid robotaxi services to fully launch until 2027, it anticipates increasing clarity around rollout plans, regulatory progress, and geographic expansion over the coming year.
The analyst also highlighted growing confidence in Tesla’s autonomy roadmap, citing positive data points around Full Self-Driving, including favorable feedback on FSD version 14 from Nvidia’s robotics team.
Optimus and new products remain longer-term drivers
Beyond autonomy, Baird continues to see upside tied to Optimus, Tesla’s humanoid robot project. The firm reiterated expectations that initial commercial sales of Optimus could begin by the end of 2027, positioning it as a longer-dated but potentially meaningful contributor to Tesla’s growth narrative.
Additional catalysts flagged include potential new product launches, as well as updates on revenue recognition, regulatory approvals, and expansion into new geographies, including China and the European Union.
How Baird arrives at its $548 Tesla price target
Baird said its $548 price target is based on approximately 70 times its 2030 EBITDA estimate, discounted back to the end of 2026. The analyst acknowledged that the valuation implies a premium, but argued it is justified by Tesla’s positioning at the intersection of electric vehicles, autonomy, robotics, and energy.
Tesla outlook heading into the new year
Taken together, Baird’s view reinforces the idea that Tesla’s near-term price swings may matter less than the company’s execution on autonomy and new platforms over the next several years. With shares trading below the firm’s target and catalysts lined up for 2026, Baird continues to see Tesla as a stock investors should hold into the new year.
Finbold also reported earlier on December 30 that a $1,000 Tesla stock return investment made at the start of 2025 would have delivered a substantial dollar gain by year-end.
