Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) surged 4.04% on July 15 to close at $170.70, propelling the Nasdaq Composite to a fresh record high of 20,677.80.
The move follows a major regulatory breakthrough and a bullish analyst upgrade from Mizuho, yet technicals suggest the rally may be entering overextended territory.
Mizuho lifts NVDA target to $192 on China AI chip news
Driving the spike was confirmation that the U.S. government has approved Nvidia’s long-delayed H20 AI chip shipments to China. The decision reopens access to a $50 billion market, triggering immediate analyst reactions.
Mizuho Securities responded by raising its price target on Nvidia from $185 to $192, reiterating an Outperform rating.
In a client note, analyst Vijay Rakesh called the development a “big win” for Nvidia, stating that “China can now return to being a tailwind for U.S. companies re-entering the AI acceleration market.”
Rakesh also lifted its broader semiconductor estimates in response to renewed geopolitical clarity.
The upgrade cements Nvidia’s position as Wall Street’s AI darling, although it comes as NVDA stock trades at what some chart analysts view as euphoric levels.
Nvidia RSI hits highest since 2024 crash
While the headlines cheer, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is flashing warning signs. At 78.19, NVDA’s daily RSI has reached its most overbought level in over a year. The last time it did so, in June 2024, Nvidia tumbled 35% in a swift correction.
The price structure reveals a parabolic move: an explosive breakout from the $150 zone, followed by narrow consolidations and immediate upside extensions.
Volume is tapering, price is overstretched from its 20-day moving average, and RSI is beginning to diverge, signs that momentum may be unsustainable at current velocity.
NVDA chart outlook: “Time to breathe”
The chart setup closely mirrors Nvidia’s Q2 2024 top. As price climbs but RSI flattens, traders are advised to tighten stops or trail exits aggressively. Should profit-taking begin, key support lies at the $158–162 region, the last major breakout pivot. A deeper correction could fill the gap toward $135.
There’s no bearish trigger yet. But in late-stage trends, all it takes is a pause in buying pressure to trigger a sharp unwind.
