Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) has seen significant volatility since the beginning of the year. On December 26, 2024, Apple stock reached an all-time high (ATH) price of $259.02. This was followed by a steady correction down to $222.64 by January 22.
On January 30, the company released its Q1 2025 quarterly results. Earnings per share (EPS) came in at $2.40, ahead of consensus estimates which were pegged at $2.36. Revenues also outperformed analyst forecasts at $124.3 billion, slightly ahead of the estimated $124.1 billion.
Apple stock closed at a price of $237.59 on the day of the earnings call — by press time on January 31, it had surged by 4.25% up to $247.70.
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Despite the double beat, a closer look at some of the tech giant’s results in the three-month period ended December 28 reveals several worrying trends. Wall Street equity analysts were quick to respond to the news — and revised their outlooks accordingly.
Keybanc reiterates bearish Apple stock rating
Brandon Nispel, a Keybanc equity researcher, reiterated an earlier ‘Underweight’ rating for Apple stock and doubled down on a previously set $200 price target.
Nispel’s price forecast implies a 19.25% downside from the stock’s current price. Keybanc deemed the quarterly results disappointing — citing the 0.8% year-over-year (YoY) decline in iPhone sales and the 11% decline in overall Chinese sales in the same period.
Nispel highlighted that the tech giant’s services division remains strong and that the mix is shifting toward higher margins. However, he concluded that the lack of a U.S. upgrade cycle, increased competition in the crucial Chinese market, and the unlikeliness of inflection across all products and geographies present consistent concerns.
Keybanc arrived at its $200 price target by using a 22x premium on Apple’s 2026 EV/EBITDA valuation.
Citi maintains bullish forecast for AAPL stock
In contrast, Citi (NYSE: C) analyst Atif Malik delivered a much more optimistic outlook. The researcher maintained a prior ‘Buy’ rating and increased his price target from $255 to $275. If met, Malik’s forecast would equate to an 11.02% upside. In addition, the researcher put Apple stock on a 90-day upside catalyst watch.
Further clarifying his decision in a note shared with investors, Malik referred to the December quarter results as ‘better than feared’, and opined that guidance for the March quarter is seasonally roughly in line with Citi’s expectations.
While he did concede that Apple is behind on AI, the analyst noted that the recent DeepSeek breakthrough could help accelerate AI adoption on devices — a possibility that would ultimately serve to benefit Apple.
The researcher cited the upcoming release of the iPhone SE4 in March, as well as Apple Intelligence’s software update which is slated for April as positive catalysts for the stock. Finally, Malik dubbed the stock Citi’s number 1 hardware pick for 2025.
Featured image via Shutterstock
