Despite the popularity and prominence of the electric vehicle (EV), Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) has been on rather shaky ground throughout 2024.
The latest deliveries report – unveiled on October 2 – proved the most recent damaging event, sending TSLA shares spiraling after a mostly successful second half of September.
At press time on October 9, Tesla is facing another imminent pivotal moment – its long-anticipated and once-postponed ‘Robotaxi’ event, scheduled for October 10.
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The event could potentially make or break TSLA stock’s 2024 performance.
An impressive showing would solidify its position as a big tech and artificial intelligence (AI) company, while a disappointment might deepen the 1.15% year-to-date (YTD) decline to $245.18.
RBC Capital says ‘buy’ Tesla despite forecasting price drop
Experts at RBC Capital have demonstrated their optimism for the upcoming ‘Robotaxi’ event with their most recent revision to the Tesla stock price target.
Furthermore, not only did the Royal Bank of Canada reiterate its ‘buy’ rating for the EV maker and raised the 12-month forecast from $224 to $236, but it also emphasized the event’s importance as Tesla is expected to showcase a potentially massively lucrative business.
Indeed, if successful, an autonomous taxi could, according to some estimates, generate as much as $1.7 trillion in revenue for Tesla and its competitors globally in the coming 16 years.
Most analysts less than confident about Tesla stock’s future performance
Despite the bullish predictions for 2040, most of the recent revisions have been relatively tame.
On October 8, Oppenheimer analysts explained that the Thursday technology presentation will partially satisfy both the bulls and the bears.
Tesla is, on the one hand, expected to offer a robust showing, particularly when it comes to its AI capabilities. On the other, Oppenheimer warned that some of the hopes for October 10 are so optimistic that Tesla is highly unlikely to fully live up to them.
Similarly, Cantor Fitzgerald opted to stay ‘neutral’ regarding Tesla stock in its September 30 revision despite maintaining a slightly bullish $245 price target.
Elsewhere, Truist Securities focused on Tesla’s most recent delivery report – particularly the strong production figures contained within – when it raised its 12-month forecast from $215 to $236. Still, neither the manufacturing strength nor the upcoming ‘Robotaxi’ event pushed Truist to revise the ‘hold’ rating.
Biggest Tesla stock bear estimates ‘Robotaxi’ will disappoint
While most experts focused on the potential benefits of the ‘Robotaxi,’ one of the biggest Tesla bears, Gordon Johnson of GJL Research, published a lengthy X thread describing why the October 10 event will disappoint.
Throughout the thread, Johnson focused on the string of high-profile departures from Tesla in recent weeks, the relatively low FSD mileage of the EV maker’s cars – at least compared to competitors such as Waymo – and the complete reliance on cameras and computing power.
Indeed, the analyst pointed to his favored self-driving experts – Sam Abuelsamid from Guidehouse, Philip Koopman from The College of Engineering, and Missy Cummings from George Mason University – and stated they all consider the technology unachievable without the use of Lidar or Radar.
Could figures from China help Tesla stock rally?
Moving beyond the upcoming technology event, Tesla unveiled some exceptionally positive business news as recently as October 9.
Specifically, Elon Musk’s EV maker witnessed strong growth in its shipments in China, with 88,321 Model 3 and Model Y vehicles delivered in September, Tesla has enjoyed its best-ever quarter in the People’s Republic in the previous trimester.
