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Arthur Hayes predicts Bitcoin will slump around halving; Here’s why

Arthur Hayes predicts Bitcoin will slump around halving; Here’s why

Despite many cryptocurrency experts firmly believing that the upcoming Bitcoin (BTC) halving will usher in an explosive rally for the flagship decentralized finance (DeFi) asset, the co-founder of crypto exchange BitMEX and prominent investor, Arthur Hayes, doesn’t share their optimism.

Specifically, Hayes has admitted that the halving would “pump prices in the medium term” but has also argued that the Bitcoin “price action directly before and after [the halving] could be negative,” because of the role of the narrative surrounding it, according to his blog post on April 8.

As he pointed out:

“The narrative of the halving being positive for crypto prices is well entrenched. When most market participants agree on a certain outcome, the opposite usually occurs. That is why I believe Bitcoin and crypto prices in general will slump around the halving.”

Furthermore, Hayes explained that the United States dollar liquidity being tighter than usual right around the estimated Bitcoin halving date “will add propellant to a raging firesale of crypto assets,” which is another reason why he intends to “abstain from trading until May.”

Why May?

According to the renowned investor, this refers to the period between April 15 (the deadline for 2023 tax year payments) and May 1, when the Federal Reserve will hold a meeting during which many expect it would reduce the pace of its Quantitative Tightening (QT) program by $30 billion per month.

Considering that “the reduction in the pace of QT is positive for dollar liquidity as the Fed’s balance sheet rate of decline slows,” May 1 would mark the end of the “precarious period for risky assets” and a return of liquidity as the “pace of QT declines, and [Janet] Yellen gets busy cashing checks to jack up asset prices.”

“While I will not outright short the market, I have closed in profit several shitcoin and memecoin trading positions. From now until May 1st, I will be in a no-trade zone. I hope to return in May with dry powder ready to deploy to position myself for the bull market to begin in earnest.”

Bitcoin price prediction and analysis

Meanwhile, the largest asset in the crypto industry by market capitalization was at press time trading at $70,430, down 1.96% on the day but nonetheless advancing 5.83% across the week, and accumulating a monthly gain of 1.22%, according to the latest chart data on April 9.

Bitcoin price 7-day chart. Source: Finbold

It is also worth noting that professional crypto trader Ali Martinez has recently observed that Bitcoin appeared to be breaking out of its symmetrical triangle chart pattern and that holding above $70,800 would make $85,000 its next target, but the maiden crypto has dropped below this level.

All things considered, Arthur Hayes might be right in his projection of a crypto fire sale around the BTC halving date but fewer new Bitcoins entering the market should decrease the potential sell pressure and increase network security, which should aid in the asset’s price increase in the longer term.

Disclaimer: The content on this site should not be considered investment advice. Investing is speculative. When investing, your capital is at risk.

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