Summary
⚈ Other analysts remain bullish with targets above 6,600, while HSBC and JPMorgan have slashed forecasts on slowdown fears.
⚈ Market outlook hinges on Fed policy shifts and trade-related risks, including potential Trump-era tariffs.
Wells Fargo Securities analyst Christopher Harvey has issued a bold, street-high forecast for the S&P 500, projecting the index will surge to 7,007 by the end of 2025.
The benchmark index would need to rally roughly 24% from its most recent close of 5,650.38 to reach that level.
Notably, yesterday’s session ended with a 0.6% decline, snapping the S&P 500’s longest nine-day winning streak since 2004.
Backing his bullish call, Harvey pointed to expectations of a favorable macroeconomic environment and potential Federal Reserve rate cuts in the latter half of 2025. He anticipates the first cut could come as early as June, even though the Fed has not yet signaled any such move.
While the index remains under pressure from ongoing trade tensions, the analyst believes economic conditions will improve significantly in the second half of the year.
Stock market repricing risks and expectations
This optimistic outlook reflects Harvey’s broader view that the market is undergoing a repricing of both risk and expectations, setting the stage for a sustained rally.
His projection follows back-to-back years of strong S&P 500 performance, with gains of 20% in both 2023 and 2024.
“If you look at the second half of the year, do you believe the Fed is going to be cutting rates? We do. <…> What we’re doing is we’re repricing risk, we’re repricing expectations—you can pull out of that. So the economy can improve,” he said.
Though the Securities analyst’s 7,007 target stands alone at the high end, other strategists are bullish. For instance, Scotiabank’s Hugo Ste-Marie sees the index reaching 6,650, while Fundstrat’s Tom Lee forecasts 6,600 by year-end 2025.
However, not all analysts are as optimistic. As reported by Finbold, on April 29, HSBC slashed its 2025 year-end target by 16%, from 6,700 to 5,600, citing fears of an economic slowdown and uncertainty tied to former President Trump’s proposed trade tariffs.
JPMorgan, meanwhile, issued the steepest downgrade. The firm now expects the S&P 500 to end 2025 at 5,200, warning of a potential drop to as low as 4,000 in a worst-case scenario, driven by significant downside risk.
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