With the S&P 500 hitting new record highs, banking giant Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) has revised its outlook for the index, setting a new target of 6,000 points.
Initially, the bank had set a target of 5,600 but issued a revision reflecting a 4% upside to 6,000, a level it anticipates will be reached by the end of 2024.
Although the stock market is rallying in an environment dominated by macroeconomic concerns and geopolitical tensions, Goldman Sachs’ Managing Director and Tactical Expert further boosted the 12-month price target for the S&P 500 to 6,300, representing a 10% return from current levels.
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Additionally, Rubner projected that investors should anticipate a year-end rally starting in October, citing historical data. Notably, since 1928, seasonal unfavorable factors have typically dissipated after October 27, and equities tend to rally after the U.S. presidential elections.
Besides the target for the index, the bank noted that the 2025 S&P 500 earnings-per-share (EPS) forecast had been raised to $268, representing an 11% year-over-year increase from its previous estimate of $256. Additionally, the firm introduced a 2026 EPS estimate of $288, projecting a 7% increase compared to 2025.
S&P 500 cautious outlook
Amid the current environment, Rubner offered a cautious outlook for the stock market over the next three weeks, citing systematic risk exposure.
At the same time, this cautious outlook comes when most stocks outperform the index. In particular, data shared by Barchart on October 4 indicates that 69.2% of stocks within the S&P 500 are now outperforming the index itself—marking the highest percentage ever recorded.
Historically, the S&P 500 has seen a smaller percentage of its components outperforming the benchmark, as large-cap stocks, especially those from the technology space, often exert significant influence. However, this surge indicates widespread rallies across various sectors, signaling robust growth beyond the index’s usual heavyweights.
Meanwhile, economists such as Henrik Zeberg believe the index is slated to reach the 6,000-point mark. Zeberg initially set a target of 5,770. However, the index recently surpassed this mark, ending the latest trading session at 5,751.
To this end, Zeberg has set his target at 6,100-6,300. Although Rubner is concerned about the stock market’s short-term outlook, Zeberg, on the other hand, suggests that the rally above 6,000 will usher in a recession that will see the index collapse to historic lows.
Zeberg maintains it’s too late despite the Federal Reserve’s move to cut interest rates. Amid these concerns, other data sets indicate that the market seems to ignore warning signs of a potential downside, with stocks rallying despite historically bearish conditions.
