Barclays has raised its price target for Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) to $200 from $170, citing strong Blackwell chip production momentum.
The update comes as NVDA shares jumped 1.92% to close at $144.69 on Monday, putting the AI chip giant within striking distance of an all-time high after a two-month turnaround. Shares closed about 3% off the record closing high.
The latest upward movement follows Nvidia’s GTC Paris event last week, where CEO Jensen Huang also attended the Viva Technology conference in France.
Blackwell production and revenue outlook
Barclays analyst Tom O’Malley raised his compute revenue estimate to $37 billion from $35.6 billion and quarterly projections to $42 billion for Q3 and $48 billion for Q4, versus Wall Street expectations of $40.8 billion and $46.2 billion, respectively.
Blackwell capacity reached 30,000 wafers per month in June, below the expected 40,000 wafers, though O’Malley noted healthy utilization rates and a positive supply chain outlook.
Blackwell Ultra remains on track for Q3 mass production, with small volumes by quarter-end. O’Malley reset average selling prices to $35,000 for the second half and expects system sales to contribute 25% of July revenue, approaching 50% by October.
Market dynamics
Nvidia continues expanding sovereign AI sales to countries building national AI infrastructure. The company secured deals with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates during President Trump’s Middle East visit.
However, the Trump administration’s China sales ban resulted in a $4.5 billion hit in recent earnings, with an additional $8 billion write-down expected in the current quarter.
Despite these headwinds, Nvidia beat first-quarter revenue expectations on Blackwell chip and server equipment sales. O’Malley cited NVDA as having “the most potential upside” in Barclays’ coverage for the second half.
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