Wall Street banking titan Goldman Sachs has mapped out a bullish upside scenario for gold, suggesting the precious metal could climb toward $5,000 in the coming years if shifts in global capital markets accelerate.

Indeed, the bullish call comes as gold continues to trade at new record highs following an impressive run in 2025. By press time, the metal was trading at 3,586, having rallied about 36% year to date. 

According to the bank, one of the biggest risks to U.S. monetary stability would be a weakening of Federal Reserve independence. 

Such a development could trigger higher inflation, falling equity valuations, lower prices for long-dated bonds, and a gradual erosion of the dollar’s dominance as the world’s primary reserve currency. 

In that environment, gold’s appeal as a store of value that does not rely on institutional trust would likely strengthen.

“A scenario where Fed independence is damaged would likely lead to higher inflation, lower stock and long-dated bond prices and an erosion of the dollar’s reserve currency status,” said Daan Struyven, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman Sachs.

Gold’s key price targets to watch 

In its baseline outlook, Goldman Sachs expects gold to reach $3,700 per ounce by the end of 2025 and advance further to $4,000 by mid-2026, supported by ongoing central bank purchases and robust demand from emerging markets. 

However, Goldman Sachs also assessed more aggressive scenarios. The bank calculated that if just 1% of private capital currently invested in the $27 trillion U.S. Treasury market were redirected into gold, the price could approach $5,000 per ounce. 

Even a less dramatic reallocation of private funds away from U.S. dollar assets could still drive gold toward $4,500 per ounce, significantly above its current levels.

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