Bitcoin could face a deeper pullback in 2026, potentially falling back toward the $69,000 level, according to a market strategist who argues that the cryptocurrency’s recent weakness may be signaling broader trouble ahead for risk assets.
Speaking to David Lin on December 19, Gareth Soloway, Chief Market Strategist at Verified Investing, said Bitcoin’s decline should be viewed through the lens of historical market cycles rather than isolated crypto volatility.
“My guess is Bitcoin doesn’t have its normal 75% drawdown like last cycles,” Soloway said. “Instead, look for somewhere in the 40 to 50% drawdown and then look for a base with institutional money accumulating.”
Soloway noted that Bitcoin may already be well into that corrective phase. “You have to think it is,” he said when asked whether the drawdown has already begun. “If we look at the chart, peak to trough, we’ve already dropped 36%.”
Previous Bitcoin cycle highs back in focus
According to Soloway, Bitcoin’s technical structure points to a potential return to the highs of the previous cycle, which now act as a key support zone.
“If we look at the chart on Bitcoin, we’re likely headed back to the high of the previous cycle at $69,000,” he said. “That becomes my zone of $69,000 to $74,000. If we do a drawdown from the highs into that range, we’re right in the midst of that 40, about 45% drawdown into that support.”
However, Soloway cautioned that a more severe outcome remains possible if broader markets unravel.
“If the stock market really collapses and we get a major, major collapse, you know, like a crash-type scenario, then Bitcoin likely would go lower because again, it would just freak out people and they would just dump everything.”
Stocks versus Bitcoin in 2026
Soloway’s outlook is closely tied to his bearish view on equities. He argued that Bitcoin’s weakness could be an early warning signal, as historically crypto and stocks tend to move in tandem during major market stress.
Assuming a more typical pullback in equities of around 10% to 15% in 2026, Soloway believes Bitcoin could begin to stabilize even as stocks struggle.
“I still think Bitcoin will continue to see investors flocking to it away from risk assets,” he said. “For the most part, it’s a risk asset still, but I still think big money is looking at it more as a form of digital gold, and therefore that’ll cushion the downside somewhat.”
He also highlighted a growing divergence between traditional markets and Bitcoin. While stocks are up double digits year to date depending on the session, Bitcoin remains down over the same period.
When asked whether Bitcoin looks attractive relative to equities at current levels, Soloway was clear. “If I had to right now, yes, I would be accumulating Bitcoin and slowly accumulating on the way down here. Absolutely.”
Defensive positioning ahead
Soloway warned that excessive leverage and speculative enthusiasm, particularly around artificial intelligence, have left equity markets vulnerable. “We’ve gotten so much money and so much leverage into the stock market at this point,” he said, adding that while AI will transform the economy, margin compression is already emerging beneath the surface.
“You’ve got to look for the defensive names now in the stock market in 2026,” Soloway concluded, “and also these ancillary plays like Bitcoin, especially if it comes down to around $70,000.”
Watch the full interview with Gareth Soloway below:
