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Bitcoin has a ’50% chance to drop below $25k’ before September ends; Here’s why

Bitcoin has a ’50% chance to drop below $25k’ before September ends; Here’s why

In recent weeks, Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced a significant price correction, with the leading cryptocurrency struggling to reclaim the $30,000 psychological threshold it surged past earlier this year. 

Despite a sharp upswing fueled by growing institutional interest earlier this year, the cryptocurrency’s inability to maintain its gains has raised concerns and left investors closely monitoring the volatile market.

Rather than the flagship digital asset moving upwards, it appears that there’s a 50% chance that BTC will crash as low as $25,000 before the end of September, according to leading investment manager Timothy Peterson tweeted on August 7. 

However, such a drop would mark the last major dip before Bitcoin embarks on the next, long-awaited bull run, the investor added. 

“There is a 50% chance that bitcoin will drop below $25,000 before the end of September.  This would be the last big dip before the next big bull run cycle commences.”

– Peterson wrote in the tweet.

September, Bitcoin’s worst-performing month

Peterson’s remarks on a possible drop in BTC price next month are based on the crypto coin’s historical performance.

Notably, as evident from the below image, September is by far the least favorable month of the year for Bitcoin in terms of price performance.

Over the past 7 years, the only time Bitcoin saw positive price gains in September was in 2016, when it rose 6.4%. On the flip side, from 2017 to 2022, BTC was in the red every time during this month, with its losses ranging from -2.95% to -13.8%, Peterson’s table shows. 

Bitcoin’s historical performance per month. Source: Timothy Peterson

However, October is one of the best-performing months for the biggest crypto coin. Since 2010, the only occasion when Bitcoin recorded a negative price change in this month was in 2018, when it fell by 4.5%. 

November and December marked mixed price performance for Bitcoin in previous years, although it is worth noting that some of its sharpest price drops came during the former month. 

Bitcoin price analysis

At the time of publication, Bitcoin was changing hands at $28,989, almost unchanged in the past 24 hours. 

Over the past week, BTC lost 1% of its value, while its monthly loss currently stands at 4%. 

BTC 1-month price chart. Source: Finbold

Year-to-date, however, BTC’s gains remain strong at around 75%. 

On August 4, pseudonymous crypto market analyst TradingShot highlighted that Bitcoin completed the third-ever golden cross pattern, which serves as a long-term bullish price signal. 

According to the expert, the previous two occasions where Bitcoin completed this pattern led to strong price rallies for the maiden cryptocurrency. 

The prediction is somewhat in line with Peterson’s comments that while Bitcoin may struggle with some near-term pressure, the long-term outlook currently looks promising for the biggest crypto asset. 

Disclaimer: The content on this site should not be considered investment advice. Investing is speculative. When investing, your capital is at risk.

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