Bitcoin (BTC) continues to navigate a complex market landscape defined by shifting ETF flows, macro headwinds, and evolving investor sentiment. Despite a modest 2% gain over the past week, the flagship cryptocurrency remains down more than 8% on the month having briefly dipped below $100,000 before stabilizing near $105,000.
At the same time, one metric is flashing caution: Bitcoin open interest across exchanges has fallen to its lowest level in seven months, currently hovering around $32.1 billion, according to data retrieved by Finbold from analytical platform CryptoQuant on November 12.
This is notable at the time because open interest represents the total value of outstanding futures contracts and serves as a barometer of speculative participation. A contraction typically signals that traders are unwinding leveraged positions, often a reflection of waning conviction or heightened uncertainty.
Interestingly, this decline comes amid weakening short-term enthusiasm for spot Bitcoin ETFs, which had been a key driver of demand earlier in the year. After weeks of record inflows, ETF momentum has cooled, with several funds seeing modest outflows as investors reassess risk exposure.
Thus, the softening derivatives activity mirrors that pause, suggesting that institutional traders may be moving to the sidelines while waiting for clearer macro or regulatory cues.
Bitcoin on-chain data
Yet beneath the surface, structural indicators remain supportive. Bitcoin’s correlation with the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has inverted to -0.88, underscoring its growing appeal as a portfolio hedge against traditional markets. Meanwhile, on-chain data shows long-term holders continue to accumulate, hinting at confidence in Bitcoin’s long-run store-of-value role even as speculative fervor fades.
Looking ahead, analysts will be watching for a rebound in open interest alongside renewed ETF inflows, a combination that could reintroduce volatility and directional momentum. On the downside, the $100,000–$104,000 zone remains a crucial support area; failure to hold it could invite further deleveraging, while sustained closes above $106,000 might rekindle bullish sentiment.
