Bitcoin’s (BTC) pullback from its all-time high of $124,500 is raising concerns of extended losses, with the asset’s current chart formation showing similarities to the 2021 cycle top that triggered a prolonged bear market.
According to insights from popular online cryptocurrency analyst TradingShot, Bitcoin has struggled to regain momentum, with every rally attempt being sold off, and the price slipping below the 50-day moving average (MA).
The setup mirrors the same sequence that unfolded four years ago when BTC entered a major downturn, the analyst noted in a TradingView post on August 29.
In both 2021 and 2025, the analysis shows lower highs followed by lower lows. The market then found support after a one-day death cross, alongside a bullish RSI divergence that marked the short-term bottom. Bitcoin rebounded, breaking above the MA50 and MA200 before forming a bull flag after a golden cross.
That rally ultimately ended with a double top, marking the peak of the cycle. Today, TradingShot highlighted a similar setup, with August’s higher high mirroring the 2021 pattern.
At the same time, the RSI trendlines also align, reinforcing the bearish fractal. If history repeats, Bitcoin could be on the verge of a bear cycle that erases much of this year’s gains. With the price now testing support at the MA50, losing this level may trigger a deeper correction, as it did in 2021.
Bitcoin price analysis
At press time, Bitcoin was hovering below the $110,000 mark, with concerns about potential extended losses in the coming days. The asset was trading at $108,234, down over 2% in the last 24 hours, while on the weekly chart, the leading digital currency has dropped more than 3%.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s technical indicators suggest potential downside risks. BTC is trading below its 50-day SMA of $116,462, indicating short-term bearish pressure, but remains well above the 200-day SMA of $95,666, suggesting that the broader uptrend remains intact.
On the other hand, the 14-day RSI at 37.76 indicates that Bitcoin is approaching oversold conditions, suggesting that selling momentum may be easing and a potential rebound could follow if buying pressure strengthens.
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