Bitcoin (BTC) is entering its most historically bullish period of the year, with data showing that late October through early November has delivered the highest probability of positive returns over the past decade.
A 10-year seasonality analysis indicates that Bitcoin has recorded gains in up to 90% of instances during this timeframe, according to insights shared by charting platform TrendSpider.
This pattern has often preceded major rallies, including the strong uptrends seen in 2017 and 2020, as investor sentiment and liquidity typically strengthen heading into year-end.
Market observers note that Bitcoin’s seasonal trend aligns with the ongoing consolidation phase around the $110,000 spot, suggesting conditions could be favorable for another leg higher.
The pattern held true in 2024, when Bitcoin surged past $100,000 for the first time, fueled by spot ETF inflows, renewed institutional demand, and growing regulatory optimism following the re-election of Donald Trump, who has been viewed as friendly to the cryptocurrency sector.
The rally extended into 2025, with the cryptocurrency reaching new record highs above $117,000 earlier this year.
Currently, Bitcoin is trading around $110,000, consolidating after months of volatility. Analysts view this pause as a potential setup for another breakout.
Indeed, after hitting a record high above $125,000, Bitcoin retreated amid growing trade tensions between the United States and China.
Bitcoin’s key price levels to watch
From a technical perspective, analysis by Ted Pillows in an X post on October 20 observed that Bitcoin has regained a critical support zone between $109,000 and $110,000, signaling renewed buyer strength after recent volatility.
Pillows noted that the next key resistance lies at $112,000, a level that, if reclaimed, could pave the way for a broader rally toward the mid-$110,000s and potentially higher.
He added that improving global risk sentiment appears to be aiding the move. With US-China trade tensions showing signs of easing, investor confidence in risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, has strengthened, fueling speculation that Bitcoin could extend its recovery in the coming sessions.
Bitcoin price analysis
By press time, Bitcoin was trading at $110,864, up 3.6% in the past 24 hours but still down 3.7% over the past week.
Indeed, while the $110,000 support remains fragile, it is crucial, as maintaining it is key to pushing the asset toward the $115,000 resistance zone.
Featured image via Shutterstock
