Once known for its extreme price swings, Bitcoin’s (BTC) volatility has reached its lowest levels in years. While it remains elevated relative to traditional assets, analysts and industry observers now note a significant shift in the asset’s behavior.
A chart shared by Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas reveals that the 60-day volatility of the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) relative to the S&P 500 (SPX) has dropped sharply, from 5.7 times higher a year ago to just 1.2826 today, marking a significant departure from Bitcoin’s previously uncorrelated and unpredictable trading patterns.
The subdued volatility has also caught the attention of Bitcoin technical analysts. Commenting on the current state of the market, analyst CryptoCon wrote on X:
Bitcoin is still barely moving, which has glued volatility to critical lows.
— CryptoCon (@CryptoCon_) June 26, 2025
Historical volatility this low has only ever been seen before the final bull run. There have been no bearish examples.
Simply:
– The cycle top run is still ahead
– The next major move is bullish pic.twitter.com/1JGO2bAH5k
The new safe haven asset?
In its weekly market update, Binance Research reported that Bitcoin continues to show signs of acting as a macro hedge during periods of geopolitical instability. Citing a BlackRock study from September 2024, the report notes that Bitcoin has historically delivered an average return of 37% in the 60 days following major geopolitical events dating back to 2020.
Following the most recent episode of geopolitical tension, Bitcoin saw a swift rebound, though analysts caution that it remains unclear whether this initial recovery will result in sustained outperformance.
Featured image via Shutterstock.
