On July 20, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva revealed plans for Brazil to join China‘s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
This announcement marks a significant shift in Brazil’s stance towards the global infrastructure project, affecting other finance markets. Previously, Brazil had been one of only three South American countries not participating in the initiative.
During an event highlighting investments in highway renovation, Lula expressed openness to BRI accession. He emphasized the need to assess the potential benefits for Brazil.
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“We will have to prepare a proposal to evaluate what Brazil gains if we participate in this initiative,” Lula stated.
Brazil and China historical context and evolving relations
Brazil and China have maintained diplomatic relations since 1974. Over the years, their partnership has grown, focusing on non-interference, equality, and mutual benefit. China became Brazil’s largest trading partner in 2009, with bilateral trade reaching $36.7 billion that year.
However, Brazil’s hesitation to join the BRI stemmed from concerns about alienating Western partners. Additionally, diplomats questioned the added value of BRI membership, given the already robust economic ties between the two nations.
Lula’s announcement follows a series of diplomatic engagements between Brazil and China. In June 2024, Brazilian Vice President Geraldo Alckmin visited Beijing, signing agreements on sustainable development, agriculture, and infrastructure. This visit set the stage for Brazil’s potential BRI participation.
Moreover, China has consistently expressed interest in Brazil joining the initiative. Liu Jianchao, minister of the Communist Party’s International Department, stated that China “really wants” Brazil to join but respects the Brazilian government’s decision-making process.
Potential impact and future prospects
Brazil’s decision to join the BRI could have far-reaching implications for South American geopolitics. As the largest economy in the region, Brazil’s participation may encourage other nations to follow suit. Furthermore, it could enhance China’s influence in Latin America.
The BRI, launched in 2013, aims to develop infrastructure and investments in over 150 countries. World Bank studies suggest that the initiative could boost trade flows in participating countries by 4.1 percent and increase GDP in East Asian and Pacific developing nations by 2.6 to 3.9 percent.
Despite the potential benefits, Brazil’s decision to join the BRI may face challenges. Critics have raised concerns about debt-trap diplomacy and environmental impacts associated with BRI projects. Additionally, balancing relations with China and traditional Western allies could prove diplomatically challenging for Brazil.
In conclusion, Brazil’s move towards joining the Belt and Road Initiative signifies a major shift in its foreign policy. As the two nations celebrate 50 years of bilateral relations, this decision could pave the way for deeper economic and strategic cooperation between Brazil and China.
