Bitcoin (BTC) trading through summer had investors worried as the world’s premier cryptocurrency entered a pattern of reaching a series of lower lows after recovering to lower highs.
Such BTC price action cast doubt upon the notion that the crypto market bull cycle will persist into 2025, but most recent trading has again raised the possibility that the downtrend will end.
Bitcoin’s Wednesday climb above $61,500 and then above $62,000 has, per the analysis of Ali Martinez, a prominent crypto expert on X, signaled the return to the bull market, raising the possibility that BTC may again strive for $70,000 in ‘Uptober.’
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Why $70,000 BTC is likely in October
Indeed, a strong rally in the tenth month of the year – a traditionally strong period for cryptocurrencies and BTC in particular – appears highly likely, whether one looks at historical precedent, current trends, or expert analyses.
PlanB, a well-known digital assets analyst on X, opined on September 16 that Bitcoin is poised for a major upturn and is only awaiting the “trigger to explode upwards.”
The analysis took into account BTC’s previous market cycles and traced the coin’s path from $1 in 2010 to its projected value of $100,000 in 2025, all the while marking the current phase as ‘accumulation.’
The Bitcoin Rainbow Chart – a tool that utilizes a logarithmic growth curve and describes investor sentiment at various price levels – concurs that the world’s premier cryptocurrency is in an accumulation phase at press time on September 19 and, thus, has much room for growth.
Did Bitcoin just find its rally ‘trigger?’
Additionally, the ‘trigger’ may have come on the afternoon of September 18 as Bitcoin had a strong and strongly positive reaction to the FED’s decision to reduce interest rates by 50 basis points.
In fact, shortly after the announcement was made, the cryptocurrency rocketed from approximately $60,000 to above $62,000. The subsequent correction was neither strong nor persisted for long, indicating BTC may soon find a more stable footing at a higher valuation.
Such a move would represent a significant step in Bitcoin’s journey back toward $70,000, which, while an $8,000 climb might appear ambitious, is certainly within reach given that the coin has already been above an even higher $73,000 in March 2024.
Renewed Bitcoin uptrend is not guaranteed
On the other hand, BTC still faces several challenges. Though the cryptocurrency managed to cross and stay above $62,000, it is, with its press time price of $62,141, hovering close to its nearest resistance level.
Should Bitcoin decisively breach said level – remain and rocket above $62,194 – it would be well positioned to test higher resistances which await just below $63,000 and slightly above $64,000.
The farther major barrier level could prove particularly important as BTC would only end its trend of lower highs followed by lower lows should it rise above it and, ideally, cross beyond $65,000 before the next major correction.
Finally, though $70,000 appears probable in October, a great filter of sorts may be awaiting Bitcoin in November.
Could November spoil ‘Uptober’?
The U.S. presidential elections are, at press time, seen as a major trigger for volatility in the crypto and stock market alike and may prove especially impactful for digital assets.
A Kamala Harris victory is not likely to be well-received by the crypto community due to both the Democratic party’s and the Biden administration’s track record with the industry. In fact, the reaction might prove significant enough to spoil the ‘Uptober’ gains.
On the flip side, Trump’s victory can reinvigorate any October uptrend or even give Bitcoin a second chance at a rally should it fail to break its protracted stagnation.
The Republican candidate is generally more popular within the crypto community and has made an effort to be supportive of the industry, at least during his election campaign.
BTC price chart
Whatever the future may hold, the current state of Bitcoin in the crypto market is best described as mixed. BTC has, so far, been having a particularly strong year and it even reached new all-time highs in March.
Additionally, it remains, even after the more recent turbulence, 46.18% in the green in the year-to-date chart (YTD).
Still, as the 6-month chart best exemplifies, more recent trading has not been as smooth, and BTC is, in fact, 3.23% down within the time frame.
Changing the narrative once more, the shorter time frames again show a more bullish picture. The world’s premier cryptocurrency has been rising of late and is 2.05% up in the last 30 days, and 6.60% in the last seven to BTC price today of $62,141.
Disclaimer: The content on this site should not be considered investment advice. Investing is speculative. When investing, your capital is at risk.
