A survey by Chief Executive has unveiled a wave of apprehension among America’s top business leaders, with a majority projecting that a recession is likely to hit in 2025.
The April 2025 survey, which polled 329 CEOs, revealed that 62% anticipate a recession or economic slowdown within the next six months, up from 48% who expressed similar concerns in March.
This growing pessimism, detailed in the Chief Executive’s CEO Confidence Index, stressed the rising fears within corporate America about the economy’s trajectory.
According to the survey, uncertainty surrounding President Donald Trump’s tariff policies is the main catalyst for this bearish outlook.
Approximately 75% of the CEOs surveyed indicated that these tariffs would adversely affect their businesses in 2025, with around two-thirds explicitly opposing the proposed levies.
Moreover, in recent weeks, Trump’s on-again, off-again approach to tariffs has intensified financial market volatility, rattled consumer confidence, and heightened anxiety among business leaders.
“Chaos in the moment with trade wars but it will settle out for the better of our country and economy,” said Jeff Chandler, the CEO and president at Hopdoddy in Texas.
Beyond the immediate threat of a downturn, the survey also highlighted a bleak outlook for growth and profitability. Only 4% of the executives foresee strong economic growth in the coming months.
Additionally, just 37% of the executives expect profit gains in 2025, as rising cost pressures squeeze margins across industries.
Increasing recession calls
Indeed, as trade tensions escalated in recent weeks, market players have increasingly adjusted their outlook to account for a potential recession.
For instance, as reported by Finbold, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon, echoing other Wall Street leaders, warned of economic risks amid rising U.S.-China trade tensions.
On April 11, he stated that uncertainty stemming from Trump-era tariffs may lower S&P 500 earnings estimates, making a recession a “likely outcome.”
Similarly, Steve Hanke, Professor of Applied Economics at Johns Hopkins University, placed the probability of a 2025 recession at around 90%.
Conversely, Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio raised even more grave concerns, suggesting that the U.S. may face economic challenges more severe than a typical recession.
He cautioned that the country is nearing a critical turning point, with risks tied to the current monetary system breakdown. Dalio emphasized that without careful management, the economic situation could significantly deteriorate.
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