Precious metals have seen quite the returns in 2024 — silver, in particular, has been in one of its hottest bull markets of all time, hitting a 12-year high of $33.71 per ounce on October 19, after surging by 7.3% over the course of the trading day.
Sentiments are almost universally bullish — with both technical analysts and renowned economists like Peter Schiff expecting that the current rally still has a ways to go, setting price targets at $50.
The iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV), a reflection of the precious metal’s spot price performance, is currently up 39.97% year-to-date (YTD) — however, like in the case of any sustained uptrend, questions remain as to whether or not this trajectory is sustainable, or if a price correction is just around the corner.
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AI sets silver price for the end of 2024
Although bullish, there’s a significant discrepancy between what the AI models see as reasonable price targets when compared to the estimates of the most vocal bulls. ChatGPT-4o, one of OpenAI’s most advanced products, gave a broad overview of the gray metal’s outlook based on macroeconomic factors, demand, and monetary policy.
The AI cited robust demand from renewable energy technologies such as electric vehicle batteries and solar panels as well as silver’s hedging capability as key bullish factors.
Macro factors were also an important consideration — with the model pointing to geopolitical tensions, political instability in key mining regions, and a weakening U.S. Dollar as factors that could serve to drive prices further up.
On the other hand, the model posited that overheated investor sentiment, stabilizing economic conditions, and a potential Dollar recovery or industrial slowdown could serve to cut the existing rally short.
With all of this in mind, OpenAI’s flagship model set a price target of $36 to $37 by the end of the year — compared to prices at press time, this would represent a 6.7% to 9.7% upside. Although a far cry from the more attention-grabbing $50 price targets, investors should keep in mind that this is a much more short-term forecast.
Lastly, the model did concede that, if the aforementioned bearish factors do not play out, silver could reach prices of $38 to $40 by the end of 2024 — while also adding that further positive developments could see the precious metal hitting $45 to $50 by late 2025 or 2026.
On the whole, the AI model gave a fair analysis — while it did not outline anything groundbreaking, the assessment that macro factors will be the catalysts that tip the scale one way or another is well-grounded.
