SpaceX’s (NASDAQ:SPCX) share unlock timeline has two important milestones this month, with the free float set to jump to 11.8% today, August 6, and to 15.2% on August 20.
As the initial public offering (IPO) placed about 639 million shares into public circulation, the releases will significantly increase the stock’s tradable supply, potentially more than doubling it if the company proceeds with the schedule as planned.
While there is no certainty that early investors or employees will sell their holdings, a large number of new shares entering the market could have a meaningful impact on SpaceX share prices. Accordingly, we’ve asked ChatGPT to predict SpaceX stock price after the August 20 share unlock.
AI predicts SpaceX stock price on August 20
In response, ChatGPT came up with three different scenarios, each with its own price range. The least probable one, with a SpaceX stock price target of $125-135, has a 20% chance of happening, and it assumes limited insider selling and a short squeeze pushing the prices up.
Slightly more likely, with a 30% chance of happening, is the bear case, which sees the price dropping to a $90-102 range if heavy insider selling persists and leads to weak market sentiment.
The most likely scenario, which has a 50% probability of coming true, assumes moderate selling and fading volatility. In this case, SpaceX shares will trade at $110-120, which is around 11% above the current price of $108 but still significantly below the IPO price of $135.
The most likely SpaceX share price after August unlocks
Narrowing the base case, Chat GPT set its final SpaceX price target after August unlocks at $116.
The price, the AI reasoned, assumed moderate selling after today’s 912 billion SPCX share unlock, which it says will create near-term volatility but stabilize in the next couple of weeks.
This potential volatility will stem from the space company’s unusually limited public float. Notably, at the time of its IPO, less than 5% of shares outstanding were available for public trading, creating a scarcity that fueled strong buying demand and drove the stock sharply higher.
With hundreds of millions of additional shares now eligible to trade, investors will be watching closely to see whether insiders take the opportunity to cash out.
Featured image via Shutterstock
