XRP could face another significant correction before the end of 2026, with OpenAI’s ChatGPT assigning a 12% probability that the cryptocurrency will crash to $0.50 by December 31.
Notably, the outlook comes as XRP faces increased selling pressure that has pushed the asset below the crucial $1 level amid a broader cryptocurrency market sell-off.
The cryptocurrency briefly dropped to around $0.89 before recovering, leaving investors questioning whether the sell-off has established a temporary bottom or could precede another leg lower.
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XRP’s end of 2026 outlook
ChatGPT estimates a 12% chance that XRP will touch $0.50 at some point before December 31, representing a potential decline of approximately 47% from its current price. The artificial intelligence (AI) model puts the probability of XRP actually closing the year at or below $0.50 at 6%.
Although a collapse to $0.50 remains an extreme scenario rather than the most likely outcome, ChatGPT considers the downside risk meaningful given the cryptocurrency’s weakening momentum and broader market conditions.
ChatGPT’s year-end projections suggest that XRP is more likely to remain above $0.70 than crash to $0.50.
The AI model assigned a 40% probability to XRP closing between $0.90 and $1.20, making this its most likely scenario. It placed the odds of a finish between $0.70 and $0.90 at 25%, while a recovery into the $1.20–$1.50 range carries a 15% probability.
Meanwhile, XRP has a 9% probability of ending the year between $0.50 and $0.70, while the likelihood of closing above $1.50 stands at 5%. The remaining 6% represents the probability of finishing at or below $0.50.
XRP price fundamentals
Several developments underpin ChatGPT’s bearish assessment, starting with XRP’s deteriorating technical structure after losing the $1 support level. Its next key support lies around $0.89–$0.90, with a breakdown potentially exposing $0.84 and $0.80 before further declines toward $0.60–$0.70.
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A sustained loss of $0.80 could trigger stop-loss orders, leveraged liquidations, and panic selling, accelerating a potential crash toward $0.50.
Institutional demand is also weakening. U.S. spot XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded approximately $19.13 million in net outflows during the week ending November 13, their largest weekly withdrawals in eight months.
Meanwhile, XRP futures liquidations reached approximately $34.29 million in 24 hours through November 14, including $33.43 million in long positions.
Open interest also fell approximately 12% over two days, indicating that leveraged positions were being unwound.
XRP price analysis
By press time, XRP was trading at $0.96, down more than 3% on the day and approximately 17% over the past week.
XRP’s technical indicators reinforce the bearish outlook, with its price trading well below its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs) of $1.31 and $1.26, respectively, indicating sustained downward pressure.
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Meanwhile, its 14-day relative strength index (RSI) stands at 16.24, deep in oversold territory and suggesting the possibility of a short-term relief rally, although it does not confirm that a market bottom has formed.
Featured image via Shutterstock
