On the crypto-based prediction platform Polymarket, traders have staked nearly $600,000 on contracts implying a 10% chance Bitcoin (BTC) will hit $130,000 by October 1, 2025.
At the same time, the odds show a 29% probability of BTC reaching $150,000 by year-end, which is the single largest wager with over $4.5 million in betting volume on the line.
A smaller fraction of traders sees it going even higher, 3% of them staking nearly $3 million on a $250,000 price target and 1% wagering nearly $2.2 million that it might climb to $1 million by January 1, 2026.
Is Bitcoin on track for $130k?
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $115,700, gaining 3.5% on the weekly chart as institutional demand via spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) continues to underpin the market with $2.3 billion in recorded inflows just last week.
The macro backdrop remains driven by monetary policy. Polymarket, for instance, sees a 98% chance of a rate cut at the upcoming Fed meeting scheduled for September 16–17.
With somewhat softer inflation readings last month, traders are also hoping for increased liquidity, a situation comparable to the 2020–2021 rally, which allowed BTC to climb from $10,000 to $69,000.
Gold could set the stage for another Bicoin rally
Likewise, Bitcoin remains closely correlated with gold, which climbed back to over $3,650 per ounce on September 12, just as silver hit its highest closing price in 14 years.
If gold continues to trend higher, BTC’s current consolidation could mirror previous phases that preceded breakouts, as past cycles have shown that Bitcoin tends to reverse and then break out when the precious metal peaks.
From a technical perspective, BTC reclaimed its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at just north of $114,500 after breaking out of a September downtrend channel. Now, resistance is forming at around $117,500–$118,000, with a potential upside target of $125,000 if breached.
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