Cryptocurrency prediction markets are suggesting that Bitcoin (BTC) is likely to trade in a narrow range by the end of February amid increased volatility for the asset.
Indeed, the outlook suggests that Bitcoin could potentially end the month valued above $70,000, marking a notable recovery from the asset’s recent crash that saw prices plunge below $65,000.
Now, data from Polymarket suggests that the $75,000 level currently carries the highest implied probability, at 54%, making it the most favored outcome among traders. The pricing points to expectations of consolidation rather than a sharp directional move before month-end.
Downside scenarios remain actively priced in, with a move toward $60,000 assigned a 42% probability and $55,000 at 23%, reflecting ongoing caution amid macroeconomic uncertainty and uneven risk appetite across digital assets.
On the upside, expectations weaken above current ranges, with $80,000 carrying a 25% chance and $85,000 priced at 12%, while price targets above $100,000 all show single-digit probabilities.
Overall, the distribution of probabilities points to a market leaning toward stability rather than extreme volatility, with $75,000 emerging as the most likely Bitcoin price by the end of February 2026 based on current odds.
Bitcoin rebounds after massive sell-off
The outlook comes as Bitcoin experienced a rollercoaster ride over the course of the week. In this line, the maiden cryptocurrency rebounded sharply on Friday, surging back above $70,000 after plunging to just over $60,000 a day earlier in one of its steepest single-day sell-offs in years. By press time, Bitcoin was trading at $68,314, having gained over 3% in the past 24 hours.
The rebound marked Bitcoin’s largest daily percentage gain since early 2023, with trading volume jumping to roughly $90 billion and market capitalization near $1.37 trillion.
Notably, the recovery followed a brutal Thursday rout that briefly pushed prices below $60,000, Bitcoin’s lowest level since October 2024, and triggered more than $2.6 billion in liquidations across the crypto market.
The sell-off erased much of Bitcoin’s late-2024 post-election rally, leaving it more than 45% below its October 2025 record high of around $126,000. Analysts pointed to risk-off sentiment, rising Treasury yields, macroeconomic uncertainty, and heavy outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs as key drivers.
While Friday’s bounce, supported by oversold technical signals and stabilization in broader risk assets, has eased fears of a deeper downturn, sentiment remains fragile. Traders are closely watching support around $60,000–$65,000, with resistance near $75,000 if momentum holds, highlighting Bitcoin’s persistent volatility despite growing institutional adoption.
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