Prediction market data from Polymarket shows that traders expect XRP to remain largely range-bound heading into the end of April.
Based on the outlook, markets are forecasting that the asset’s price will likely cluster around mid-level targets, indicating that the much-sought $2 mark may not be reached soon.
According to the data, $1.40 carries the highest probability at 65%, making it the most favored outcome among market participants.
Close behind, $1.20 holds a 56% probability, reinforcing expectations that XRP will trade within a relatively narrow band near current levels.
Beyond this range, confidence drops off notably, with the probability of XRP reaching $1.60 standing at 20%, while a move down to $1 is priced at 15%, suggesting some downside risk remains.
Higher price targets appear increasingly unlikely, with $1.80 at 6% and $2 at just 2%, while levels above $2.20 attract roughly a 1% probability each.
On the lower end, bearish scenarios also carry limited weight. A drop to $0.80 is assigned a 5% chance, while deeper declines below $0.60 register around 1% or less, indicating that markets do not expect a significant breakdown.
XRP weak fundamentals
Indeed, it can be argued that this projection also mirrors the outlook for the broader cryptocurrency market, considering that in recent sessions XRP has traded in tandem with overall market trends.
Notably, the asset has failed to build on specific catalysts for price movement and has instead relied heavily on Bitcoin’s (BTC) direction.
Meanwhile, the situation has been compounded by XRP’s exchange-traded fund (ETF) market slipping back into negative territory, reflecting persistent weakness in institutional demand.
Recent data indicates that XRP-linked funds recorded a net weekly outflow of $3.56 million, marking the first withdrawal of April and breaking a brief two-week streak of positive inflows.
This downturn follows earlier gains, when the funds attracted approximately $636,480 and $2.66 million in consecutive weeks, suggesting that recent selling pressure has outweighed prior momentum.
XRP price analysis
The weak performance comes as XRP itself traded largely in the red over the past week. By press time, XRP was trading at $1.31, down about 0.3% in the past 24 hours, while on the weekly timeframe, the asset is down nearly 2%.
From a technical perspective, XRP is trading below both its 50-day SMA of $1.41 and 200-day SMA of $2.06, pointing to sustained bearish pressure across both the short and long term.
Trading below the 50-day average suggests weak near-term momentum, while the wide gap beneath the 200-day SMA highlights a broader downtrend that has yet to show signs of reversal.
On the momentum side, the 14-day RSI stands at 38.95, placing it in neutral territory but leaning toward the lower end. This indicates that while XRP is not yet oversold, selling pressure remains dominant, with limited bullish strength emerging.
