Prediction market data from Polymarket shows traders assigning some of the lowest odds for XRP to reach the coveted $4 mark by 2026.

Specifically, traders have priced in a 21% probability of XRP hitting $4 before January 2026, reflecting moderate optimism, according to data retrieved by Finbold on October 22. 

The $4 target has gained traction recently, rising 4% in probability over the past few sessions. However, higher thresholds appear less convincing, only 6% expect XRP to reach $6, while 25% see a chance of it touching $3.50. The most likely scenario, with 38% odds, places XRP around $3.20 before the deadline.

Trading volumes behind these probabilities exceed $220,000, signaling growing market engagement in long-term XRP outcomes.

Notably, several factors explain why XRP’s chances of reaching $4 have recently diminished. The token has shown high volatility but failed to break key resistance levels, facing repeated rejections near $3 and $3.50 amid weak trading volume. The asset has also been weighed down by broader market sentiment, limiting upward momentum.

However, approval of spot crypto ETFs in the United States could be a game changer. As seen with Bitcoin (BTC), such approvals can trigger massive institutional inflows and reignite risk appetite, a development that could significantly raise the odds of XRP hitting $4.

XRP price analysis

At the time of reporting, XRP was trading at $2.39, down 2.5% in the past 24 hours and over 3% on the week.

From a technical perspective, XRP is trading below both its 50-day SMA ($2.82) and 200-day SMA ($2.62), indicating a bearish trend and weak momentum across both short- and long-term timeframes.

Meanwhile, the 14-day RSI at 39.93 signals a neutral to slightly bearish outlook, not yet oversold but showing fading buying strength. 

Combined, the SMA and RSI readings suggest XRP could face continued pressure unless it reclaims support above its key moving averages.

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