Cryptocurrency prediction markets are signaling that XRP is likely to trade between $1 and $1.20 on August 1, 2026, with traders assigning a combined 89% probability to that range.
The forecast comes as XRP changes hands at $1.10, with market participants positioning for relatively limited price movement over the next five days.
Prediction market data from Polymarket shows a 45% probability that XRP will close between $1.10 and $1.20 on August 1, making it the most likely outcome. Meanwhile, the $1 to $1.10 range carries a 44% probability.
The pricing suggests traders expect XRP to remain near current levels despite broader uncertainty across the cryptocurrency market.
According to the prediction market, the chances of XRP moving significantly above or below its current price remain relatively low.
The probability of XRP trading between $1.20 and $1.30 stands at 7%, while a move to the $0.90-$1 range carries a 6% chance. All other forecast ranges attract probabilities of 2% or less.
At the same time, the market assigns just a 1% probability to XRP rising above $1.50 by August 1, while the likelihood of the token falling below $0.60 is estimated at 2%.
Overall, the data indicates traders expect XRP to remain range-bound, with the $1-$1.20 zone serving as the most likely destination over the forecast period.
XRP technical structure remains cautious
Meanwhile, technical indicators also point to limited volatility in the near term. To this end, XRP’s 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 50.42, indicating neutral momentum, while the asset is trading almost exactly in line with its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) of $1.11.
However, the token remains below its 200-day simple moving average of $1.39, suggesting the broader trend has yet to turn decisively bullish.
Investor sentiment remains cautious, with the Fear & Greed Index registering 30, a level associated with fear. Market sentiment is also classified as bearish despite XRP recording 18 positive trading days over the past 30 sessions.
Taken together, the prediction market and technical indicators suggest XRP is most likely to remain near current levels through August 1.
