Confidence is growing in the cryptocurrency market, and XRP could surpass $3 in 2025 as its highest price target of the year.
Specifically, traders are placing an 80% probability that XRP will hit $3.50 or higher this year, a 43-point surge in sentiment, according to data retrieved by Finbold from market prediction platform Kalshi on June 17.
Similarly, the odds of XRP reaching $3.40 or more stand at 72%, up 30 points. However, as price targets rise, market confidence begins to taper.
To this end, the likelihood of XRP climbing to $3.75 is currently 30%, while the chances of breaking above $4 sit at 29%. Even more ambitious, a $5 target has just a 32% probability, reflecting caution at higher levels.
At the same time, the recent price movements suggest that XRP could realistically test the $3 level, especially if it clears the $2.50 resistance. In that case, $3.50 emerges as a key long-term hurdle.
XRP fundamentals
On-chain fundamentals are also bullish, supporting the probability of XRP holding above $3.
As reported by Finbold on June 16, XRP’s network activity has surged where, for the first time in its 12-year history, 2,708 wallets now hold over 1 million each of the tokens.
Meanwhile, daily active addresses have skyrocketed to over 295,000, an eightfold jump from the three-month average of 35,000 to 40,000, indicating a significant uptick in user engagement.
Regulatory developments may also play a pivotal role. Markets are closely watching the Securities Exchange Commission (SEC), with speculation growing over the potential approval of a spot XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF).
Such a move could attract substantial institutional capital. At the same time, the proposed settlement in the ongoing Ripple vs. SEC lawsuit remains unresolved but could bring long-awaited legal clarity.
XRP price analysis
Despite optimism in the prediction markets, XRP continues to face short-term headwinds. At press time, the token was trading at $2.19, down more than 2% in the past 24 hours and nearly 5% over the past week, struggling to maintain a position above the $2.30 resistance.
Technically, XRP remains under mild pressure. It is trading slightly below its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) of $2.30 but still well above the 200-day SMA of $1.87, an indicator of a broader bullish trend. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently sits at 53.72, suggesting that XRP is in neutral territory and neither overbought nor oversold.
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