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Did this U.S. politician predict a stock market crash with his trades?

Did this U.S. politician predict a stock market crash with his trades?
Elmaz Sabovic

On June 14, a Republican Senator from Alabama, Tommy Tuberville, disclosed one of the most massive stock trades by a U.S. politician in 2024, selling stocks from over 40 companies while buying just two: Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) and Solventum (NYSE: SOLV).

The U.S. Senators’ stock trading sales include shares from companies such as Mastercard (NYSE: MA), Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX), Visa (NYSE: V), and PepsiCo (NASDAQ: PEP). All of these companies have experienced negative performance since June 14, which comes after a recent stock market downturn.

Tuberville's stock trades on June 14. Source: Quiver Quantitative
Tuberville’s stock trades on June 14. Source: Quiver Quantitative

With his sales in 2024 outpacing purchases by a notable amount ($4.96 million compared to $1.61 million), the question arises: did the Senator from Alabama possess insider knowledge about the market and stocks in his portfolio, thus allowing him to time his sales almost perfectly.

Tommy Tuberville trading activity. Source: Quiver Quantitative
Tommy Tuberville trading activity. Source: Quiver Quantitative

Tuberville directly oversees some of the stocks he traded

As a member of the Senate Subcommittee on Commodities and a member of the Senate Committee on Health, Tuberville also engaged in several options trades in stocks and ETFs that are in direct connection with the positions he holds.

Tuberville bought call options in Barrick Gold (NYSE: GOLD), Chevron (NYSE: CVX), and Cleveland Cliffs (NYSE: CLF), which are all commodities-related stocks.

Furthermore, the Senator from Alabama bought options in Gilead Sciences (NASDAQ: GILD) and S&P Biotech ETF, which are both biotech and healthcare-related.

What makes these trades worrying is that the Republican Senator could potentially possess insider information about the said stocks or information about impending laws, bills, and other judicial legislatures that could negatively or positively impact the performance of these companies.

Tuberville didn’t follow the trend in 2024

Looking at Tuberville’s trading activity since he assumed office in 2021, his purchases outweighed sales every year except 2023 (albeit with a small margin of $190,000 in favor of sales) and 2024, which, so far, heavily favors the sales.

Whether this is purely coincidental or the Alabama Senator possessed information unknown to the general public about the economic metrics that could directly impact the stock market remains unknown.

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