Bloomberg Intelligence commodity strategist Mike McGlone has outlined a scenario in which Bitcoin (BTC) ultimately retraces toward the $10,000 level.
McGlone’s outlook comes as Bitcoin attempts a moderate recovery from the February 5 crash that saw the asset test $61,000 before rebounding and now aiming to sustain gains above $70,000.
In an X post on February 8, McGlone noted that his framework suggests the $64,000 area represents a key inflection point rather than a durable floor.
He views this level as a temporary pause in a broader decline, reflecting what he considers the most common price zone during 2024, a year he characterizes as the peak of speculative excess.
Additionally, a rebound toward roughly $72,000 would still qualify as a typical bear-market bounce, amounting to a standard 20% recovery rather than the start of a new bull cycle.
“$64,000 is a speedbump on the way back down, roughly the mode from 2024, the year that fueled the final silliness stage. <…> Future generations will replace tulip mania with crypto frenzy as the primary analogy for markets that simply went up too much. <…> A normal 20% bear-market bounce is $72k, from $64k,” he said.
The expert argued that Bitcoin has not established itself as digital gold or a reliable market proxy, remaining a highly speculative asset with no intrinsic anchor and growing competition from thousands of alternative tokens.
He added that billions of dollars in ongoing outflows from crypto copycat products indicate the sector’s cleansing phase is still in its early stages.
While skeptical of speculative cryptocurrencies, he distinguished Bitcoin and stablecoins, which he views as a more practical application of the technology.
Impact on stock market
Meanwhile, McGlone’s base case expects rising equity-market volatility to pressure risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
He warned that unusually low volatility in the S&P 500 is unlikely to persist and that a return toward historical norms, combined with stretched U.S. equity valuations relative to GDP, could trigger a broader risk-off move that leaves Bitcoin exposed.
In this context, Bitcoin holding above $90,000 would challenge the bearish outlook. Failing that, McGlone expects further drawdowns across high-beta assets, driven not by a single catalyst but by excess valuations, fading speculation, and a shifting global market regime.
As reported by Finbold, the strategist has previously warned that Bitcoin is reverting toward its historical mean near $64,000.
He argued that the liquidity-fueled rally is fading and that a decisive break lower could intensify downside pressure and spill over into broader risk markets.
Bitcoin price analysis
This bearish outlook comes as Bitcoin has recorded losses over the past week, fueling concerns of a potential cryptocurrency winter. These fears have been reinforced by large net outflows from spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), with BlackRock’s product alone seeing over $300 million in outflows during the period, signaling weakening institutional demand.
At press time, Bitcoin was trading at $69,600, down more than 10% over the past week.
For now, Bitcoin’s near-term upside depends on reclaiming the $70,000 level, which could open the door to a move toward the $72,500 resistance. Continued trading below this threshold would signal further downside risk.
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