Macro strategist Henrik Zeberg has argued that the current U.S. economy bears a closer resemblance to 1929 than to the periods preceding the 2000 Dot-com crash or the 2007-2008 financial crisis.
According to Zeberg, a technology-driven stock market bubble centered on artificial intelligence is developing against a backdrop of weakening labor market conditions, strained consumer finances, and sluggish housing activity.
He believes the combination of an overheated market and a fragile economy makes the current environment more comparable to the period before the Great Depression, according to an X post published on September 28.
The strategist, who developed the Zeberg Macro Navigation Framework, published a comparison of economic and market indicators across 1929, the 2000 dot-com peak, and 2026. His analysis concluded that today’s conditions most closely resemble those seen before the 1929 market crash.
Why Zeberg compares U.S. economy to 1929
Zeberg’s assessment is based on what he sees as a disconnect between soaring asset prices and deteriorating economic fundamentals.
His comparison highlighted an AI stock bubble as the dominant market narrative, similar to the technology-driven enthusiasm seen during previous speculative booms.
At the same time, he pointed to a personal savings rate of about 3%, weak real wage growth, rising household financial pressure, and consumer sentiment readings near multi-year lows.
The analysis also notes that approximately two-thirds of households are living paycheck to paycheck, while food insecurity remains elevated. Meanwhile, housing activity has slowed significantly, with existing home sales remaining near multi-decade lows.
On the labor front, Zeberg argued that job creation trends are weaker than those recorded before the 2001 and 2008 recessions. He has also cited softer full-time employment growth and signs of increasing stress in private credit markets.
Stock market bubble and economic weakness
A central theme of Zeberg’s outlook is that market strength is being driven by a narrow segment of the economy rather than broad-based growth.
He argued that higher-income households account for an increasingly large share of consumer spending, helping support headline economic data despite growing financial pressure on many Americans.
At the same time, AI-related companies continue to attract significant investor capital, pushing valuations higher.
According to Zeberg, only the 1929 period featured a similarly extreme combination of a major technology-led stock market bubble and widespread economic weakness beneath the surface.
The expert has also warned that the technology bull market that began in the early 2000s may be nearing its final stage.
While another rally remains possible, Zeberg believes recession risks and the likelihood of a sharp market correction are rising as economic momentum weakens.
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