Skip to content Launches a Probability of Getting Coronavirus Calculator

China country on map hidden with medicine face mask. has launched a probability of getting a Coronavirus calculator to help individuals from different countries determine the relative risk of getting the COVID-19 virus on a given day in their country, state or province. 

The interactive panel of the probability of getting a Coronavirus calculator.

How it works

The calculator determines a chance of infection by working out the ratio between new Coronavirus cases in the selected area compared to its population.

Please note, the calculator only takes into consideration new daily cases in each area reported by credible sources to remove all bias from its calculations. Knowing new confirmed cases in each country allows us to work out the actual percentage of people that were infected that day.

“The best way to understand the logic behind the calculator is to compare it to a lottery; if we know that 10 new cases were confirmed on the last day in a country with 10 million people, we know that the chance of  “winning” that day was 1 in a million,” – says Idas Keb, a co-founder at and the creator of the aforementioned tool.

According to Idas, taking any other measurement outside new daily cases confirmed would make the calculator biased. And naturally, there are many other factors that can have an effect on the individual risk of infection, however this highly depends on the behavior and precaution each individual takes to protect themselves against the virus.

Methodology Used 

To determine the relative chance of contracting the virus, the calculator uses the following formula: [chance for the day expressed in %] = [area population] * [new daily cases in the area] / 100.

The data used for calculation is derived from the World Health Organization, CDC and for reported new COVID-19 cases worldwide. And Wikipedia for the updated United States population. To determine the population of other countries, the calculator derives the data from World Population Review.

Weighted risk by country

The Coronavirus calculator also allows users to view ranked lists of countries, states and provinces by the chance of infection relative to its population. Risk chance in the lists is expressed in the percentage chance of contracting Coronavirus on a given day.

However, users of the calculator are advised to adhere to all precautions recommended by local authorities and the World Health Organisation to prevent further spread of the virus, regardless of the chance of infection reported by the calculator.

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