Despite being the best-performing blue-chip in the world since late 2022, Nvidia’s (NASDAQ: NVDA) stock’s early 2026 performance has been somewhat sluggish.
Specifically, NVDA shares are down 0.88% in the year-to-date (YTD) chart and are, at press time on January 12, changing hands at $184.86.
Such performance can be attributed both to the holdover downward momentum from late 2025 and to a battle between bullish and bearish catalysts that have emerged in recent months.
On the one hand, Nvidia is set improve upon its architecture and turbocharge artificial intelligence (AI) development with the Vera Rubin series of chips – scheduled for this year – and is further specializing with, for example, products tailored for self-driving cars.
The semiconductor giant’s market is likewise scheduled to increase as Chinese companies shall again gain access to hardware later in 2026, though orders might be limited due to the reported requirement for full upfront payments for series H200 chips.
Could optimism for Nvidia stock in 2026 be overblown?
On the other hand, Nvidia’s decision not to show any new GPUs at the upcoming CES 2026 keynote has been taken as a sign of production bottlenecks, given the low production capacity for GDDR7 memory needed for advanced AI chips.
Similarly, and despite being understated in most media, long-time Nvidia fans have taken to viewing the decision to downscale the production of gaming chips a bit like McDonald’s (NYSE: MCD) discontinuing burgers because corporate clients have decided to go all-in on pizza parties.
To address this particular concern, the semiconductor giant is reportedly considering restarting production of older chips that use easier-to-manufacture memory.
Lastly, given the mix of bullish and bearish factors, Finbold decided to consult the advanced AI of Google’s (NASDAQ: GOOGL) Gemini platform to try to gauge how NVDA stock might perform by January 31, 2026, but also through the rest of the year.
Google Gemini sets Nvidia stock price target
As it turned out, Gemini proved cautiously optimistic about Nvidia shares in January, estimating that the equity is likely to climb by the end of the month. According to the AI, NVDA is most likely to hit $196.50 by the 31st, driven by New Year optimism, the China catalyst, demand for Blackwell chips, and hopes for Rubin.
Gemini’s forecast for the entire 2026 has proven even more bullish – and is, again, primarily driven by the expectations that Rubin will both be impressive and enjoy high demand – as it set the overall price target at $275.
Google Gemini estimates odds of AI bubble burting in 2026
Interestingly, when inquired about the possibility of the so-called AI bubble bursting in a similar fashion to the Dot-com bubble – in the better scenario – or the NFT fad – in the worse scenario – bust, the AI estimated a 25-30% likelihood.
Even more interesting, Gemini explained it believes in its whole-year price target as it estimates the drop will take place close to the middle of the year, thus leaving enough time for a rally to reignite, and that architecture providers like Nvidia will suffer less of a drop than other AI-focused firms.
Featured image via Shutterstock
