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Here’s what Nvidia stock needs to break out of this range

Here’s what Nvidia stock needs to break out of this range
Aneena Alex

Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) is on the verge of a new growth phase as its highly anticipated Blackwell GPU series is set to drive further advancements in the artificial intelligence (AI) space.

Despite currently trading near its all-time high of $135 on a split-adjusted basis, Nvidia’s stock has remained range-bound in recent months. However, top analysts suggest that the launch of the Blackwell chips in early 2025 could be the breakthrough that pushes the stock higher.

Nvidia’s impressive 173% year-to-date growth and market cap exceeding $3.3 trillion highlight the company’s leading role in the artificial intelligence (AI) sector and its strong presence in the semiconductor industry.

NVDA stock price. Source: Google Finance

Analyst upgrades and insights: Optimism surrounding Blackwell

Nvidia’s upcoming Blackwell GPU series is also drawing attention from leading analysts, who are raising their price targets based on its potential to drive further growth in AI markets. 

While some describe the stock’s behavior as “casino-like” due to its volatility, analysts remain optimistic about the growth prospects fueled by the Blackwell launch.

Citi analyst Atif Malik has raised his price target for Nvidia to $150, up from prior levels, citing the importance of the Blackwell chip launch in stabilizing Nvidia’s margins. Malik highlights short-term margin pressures, which saw gross margins dip to 75.7% in the July quarter.

However, he expects margins to bottom around 72% before rebounding once Blackwell is fully ramped up. This factor supports Malik’s optimism about Nvidia’s long-term growth prospects, with the stock potentially rising 17.5% from current levels.

“While we are bullish on another strong +40% Y/Y cloud data center capex growth next year, we expect the stock to likely remain range bound through CES January before Blackwell driven Y/Y sales and gross margin inflection in the Apr-Q”

Atif Malik

Goldman Sachs analyst Toshiya Hari has similarly raised his price target to $150, up from $135, emphasizing Nvidia’s leadership in AI computing. 

After meetings with Nvidia executives, Hari noted that the increasing complexity of AI workloads and the rising demand for high-performance GPUs position Nvidia well for long-term success.

Strong demand for Nvidia’s AI products

Goldman Sachs has further adjusted its 2026 and 2027 revenue projections for Nvidia, raising them by 7% and 8%, respectively, based on strong industry trends and demand for Nvidia’s AI products.

Several companies, including those developing platforms like ChatGPT, are using Nvidia’s graphics processing units (GPUs). Key partnerships are further fueling Nvidia’s growth. 

For instance, Foxconn recently announced plans to significantly expand its server capacity to meet the demand for Nvidia’s Blackwell chips. Additionally, Foxconn is building the world’s largest manufacturing facility in Mexico to bundle Nvidia’s GB200 Superchips, a key component of the next-generation Blackwell platform.

Potential risks and market outlook

While Nvidia’s future looks bright, investors should be mindful of certain risks. China’s efforts to support local AI chipmakers and reduce dependency on Nvidia’s products could lead to a decline in sales from the region.

Although the U.S. and European markets are likely to offset any slowdown from China, this remains a factor that could impact Nvidia’s short-term performance.

With the AI accelerator market projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 29% through 2030, Nvidia’s leadership in this space positions it to capture a significant share of the expanding market. 

Nvidia’s revenue has already surged to $96.3 billion over the past four quarters, thanks to the strong demand for its GPUs in AI applications. The launch of the Blackwell chip could further propel Nvidia’s growth as it plays a critical role in advancing AI infrastructure.

NVDA stock technical setup

Regarding Nvidia’s technical setup, TrendSpider’s analysis highlighted that the stock has been in a consolidation phase for several months, testing resistance at $134.80.

NVDA price analysis chart. Source: TrendSpider

Recent price gains of 22.45% and 50.37% suggest accumulation is taking place. If Nvidia breaks through this resistance, analysts expect the stock to target $182. 

Nvidia’s shares are currently trading 14% above their 50-day moving average, indicating strong bullish momentum, which could lead to a significant breakout as the Blackwell chip launch approaches.

For traders, this technical setup presents a compelling opportunity to closely watch Nvidia’s stock as it nears a potential breakout. Rising volume and positive news surrounding Blackwell’s production progress could further support this move.

In conclusion, Nvidia’s upcoming Blackwell GPU series could serve as the next major catalyst for the stock, driving both revenue and margin growth in 2025 and beyond.

For long-term investors, Nvidia presents a compelling opportunity, especially with the AI market still in its early stages of adoption. 

While the stock may remain range-bound in the short term, the upcoming Blackwell launch, coupled with strong technical indicators, suggests Nvidia is well-positioned for a breakout in 2025.

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