SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) could decline to $50 per share between August 2026 and the first half of 2027 if a series of bearish catalysts align, according to ChatGPT.
Notably, the AI model does not consider a drop to $50 the most likely outcome. However, it believes the risk becomes more significant if insider selling accelerates after lockup restrictions are lifted, earnings disappoint, and progress on Starship remains delayed.
The assessment comes after SpaceX stock fell about 50% from its post-IPO high above $225 to trade around $115 as of press time.
ChatGPT identified August through October 2026 as the period most likely to trigger another major decline.
The company is scheduled to report second-quarter earnings on August 4, while more than 911 million previously restricted shares are expected to become eligible for sale shortly afterward.
A combination of weaker-than-expected financial results and heavy insider selling could increase downward pressure on the stock as the market adjusts to a significantly larger share float. Additional lockup expirations expected in 2027 could create a second period of elevated volatility.
Odds of SpaceX stock dropping to $50
Despite these risks, ChatGPT believes SpaceX’s business fundamentals reduce the probability of a collapse to $50.
In this line, Starlink has become the company’s primary earnings engine, generating approximately $3.26 billion in quarterly revenue and about $1.19 billion in operating income. Meanwhile, SpaceX continues to dominate commercial launch services and is expanding its presence in government and defense contracts.
The company generated roughly $18.7 billion in revenue during 2025, representing annual growth of about 33%.
Based on current fundamentals, ChatGPT views a trading range of $90 to $130 as the most likely outcome over the coming months, assigning a 45% probability to that scenario.
The model estimates a 30% chance of the stock falling to between $70 and $90 and a 15% probability of a decline into the $50 to $70 range. The likelihood of SpaceX falling below $50 is estimated at 10%.
SpaceX stock sell-off explained
Meanwhile, the recent selloff has been driven largely by concerns over valuation and increasing share supply rather than weakening business performance.
Following its June IPO at $135, SpaceX surged above $225 as investors piled into one of the market’s most anticipated listings. Sentiment later shifted as attention turned to upcoming lockup expirations and the company’s premium valuation.
Starship delays have also weighed on the stock, as the program remains central to SpaceX’s long-term growth strategy.
